A Final Look at the Sections, Part 6
Section 5AAAA Here’s another wide open section. In the past 2 weeks Park Center jumped from #4 to #1, and Roseville went exactly the opposite direction. That leaves NW Suburban rivals Champlin Park and Centennial at #2 and #3. Park…
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Continue ReadingSection 5AAAA
Here’s another wide open section. In the past 2 weeks Park Center jumped from #4 to #1, and Roseville went exactly the opposite direction. That leaves NW Suburban rivals Champlin Park and Centennial at #2 and #3. Park Center is 21-5, the others are all 20-6. The real difference is, What have you done for me lately? Park Center is on an 11-game winning streak, while Champlin is 8-1 over the past nine, Centennial is 2-3, and Roseville is 2-4.
That makes Park Center the favorite over Roseville, but the outcome will be determined by how well Park Center handles Roseville’s physical approach and also on Park Center not falling behind. If Roseville gets an early lead, look for a game in the 30s.
Champlin beat Centennial 64-60 3 weeks ago—at home. The fact is that Centennial clearly has the better talent, not that Erica Hicks, Allison Gerads, Gabby Mocchi and Amanda Pollard can’t play. They surely can. But, seriously, Centennial has the deepest talent in the section and in the NW Suburban. But, that didn’t keep them from coming in third in their half of the NW Suburban and in the seeds.
Our picks: In the semis, Park Center 58 Roseville 52 and Centennial 67 Champlin Park 64. Then, in the finals, if Ann Simonet is scoring, it’s over. But, if there’s a beef with Park Center’s play this year, it’s not getting their best catch-and-shoot enough looks. Park Center 67 Centennial 66.
Section 6AAAA
Wayzata may not be the best team that doesn’t make it to state. Some #1 seeds could lose. But, they are the best #2 seed, bar none. But, it was Hopkins 89 Wayzata 52 last time. Wayzata is better than that. Our pick: Hopkins 79 Wayzata 62.
Section 7AAAA
Do I need to worry about anybody other than Andover and Anoka? Hey, Forest Lake! I’m talking about you! Do I need to worry about anybody other than Andover and Anoka?
On a good night Forest Lake looks like Centennial or Lakeville North. But there haven’t been many good nights of late. One win and 5 losses down the stretch. Basically they’re all sophomores—and mostly volleyball players. And point guard Abi Asperheim, who’s a senior, missed a couple games. Meanwhile, Anoka is 4-1 in its last 5 with a win over Centennial. So that semi-final has definitely flipped.
Meanwhile, #1 seed Andover has a pretty clear path to the final. Either Anoka or Forest Lake could overpower them. Could. But, that doesn’t mean they will. On any given night, you could see an upset here. But Andover isn’t going to beat itself. Our pick: Andover 57 Anoka 52.
Section 8AAAA
Elk River? St. Michael? St. Michael? Elk River? St. Michael has had Elk River’s number in Section 8 for so long…but the Elks got that monkey off their back with a 65-62 win in January. Or, did they? I mean, that was not a section game.
The Elks are now 26-0, and there’s the age-old question of whether they might have been better off with a loss before the sections start. Being unbeaten just adds that much more pressure. Or, does it? They’ve beaten Anoka, Centennial, Champlin and Minnetonka among their last five wins.
St. Michael is 21-4 with all 4 losses to top 5 teams. They’ve won 12 in a row but, of course, in the Mississippi 8 there just isn’t a lose-able game on their stretch schedule. So it doesn’t mean much, except that they did beat Rogers easily without Rae Johnson. If Rae is 100 percent, well, that makes the Elks job that much harder. If not, then you’ll be seeing the Elks at the Target Center, finally. But, our expectation is that Rae is fine. Our pick: St. Michael 64 Elk River 63.
Seeds and State
In this 2nd foursome, the seeds would pretty obviously be 1) Hopkins and 4) Andover. In between? Wow. Flip a coin. I guess St. Michael 3 and Park Center 4 just based on the losses.
Combining all 8 of our projected section winners, you get something like this: 1) Hopkins, 2) Lakeville North, 3) St. Michael, 4) Eastview, 5) Park Center. Not seeded are Andover, East Ridge and Minnetonka. Our cut at the 1st round matchups:
Hopkins vs. Andover
Eastview vs. Park Center
Lakeville North vs. East Ridge
St. Michael-Albertville vs. Minnetonka
Remember, this is a sections preview, not a state tournament preview. So, you’ll have to stay tuned if you want to know how the state tournament is actually going to turn out.