Finals Saturday Previews Part 1
Orono has finally made it to a final, and Winona is back for the 2nd straight time. Orono entered the 2015 tournament seeded #1 but lost to Marshall in a semi-final upset 55-48 after trailing 35-20 at the half. Then,…
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Continue ReadingOrono has finally made it to a final, and Winona is back for the 2nd straight time. Orono entered the 2015 tournament seeded #1 but lost to Marshall in a semi-final upset 55-48 after trailing 35-20 at the half. Then, last year they were rated #1 in the state but lost to Hutchinson in the section final. Well, they’ve avenged themselves upon Hutch in this year’s section final 66-62. Now, they’ve gotten past the semi-final bugaboo. Now, the final…
Where they will meet an experienced Winona team that now has won 4 of 5 state tournament games over 2 years, and like Orono has avenged its loss. Holy Angels beat Winona 51-43 in last year’s final, but Winona returned the favor 58-43 on Thursday. Winona also avenged their only 2 losses to AAA teams when they beat Northfield 59-40 for the Section 1AA title. They had lost to Northfield by 18 earlier and also to Kasso-Mantorville by 21, but Northfield beat KM in the section semi so the Northfield win wiped that one out, too.
Neither team has revenge to play for any more. So what? If you can’t get up for a state final, what are you living for? So, motivation is equal. It won’t be about motivation at all. It will just be about which team has the most talent. Which is that?
Center—In the post, it’s 6-2 seniors Natalie Smaron for Orono vs. Danneka Voegeli for Winona. Voegeli is headed to NDSU while Smaron is going to D3 Benedictine (IL).
Voegeli is a bigger, stronger 6-2 but Smaron has these big long arms which enable her to block a lot of shots. Voegeli is a better position defender, Smaron a better goalie. Voegeli has better post moves, but Smaron is harder to defend because of those long arms. Advantage: Even.
Power Forward—Abby Winter, 6-0 senior, goes for Winona, Mattea Rice, 6-1 senior, for Orono. Winter strong and skilled all-around. Rice more limited mobility-wise, stays down low. Orono also subs at this position quite a bit with 5-7 girls, in other words they quickly go smaller from here. Winter will be a very tough matchup for Orono. Advantage: Winona.
Small Forward—Here is one focus as the 2 leading scorers are both here—Tori Andrew, 5-10 senior, for Orono and 6-2 senior Eden Nibbelink for Winona. Andrew going to Yale, Nibbelink to Fairview. Andrew more of a pure scorer, can go inside or out. One of the state’s top 3-point shooters. Nibbelink does it all—13 ppg, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, a block, 2 steals. With its length, Winona should at least be able to slow Andrew down. On the other hand, Winona is sometimes careless and silly reach-in fouls are a part of that. If Nibbelink gets in foul trouble the advantage goes away. Advantage: Remains to be seen. Whichever player wins this matchup, their team will win.
Point Guard—Maddie Loder, 6-0, junior, and George Washington U. recruit for Orono; Maria Appicelli, 5-7 senior for Winona. Appicelli has had a terrible tournament with 16 turnovers so far, and no wonder. I don’t remember the last time I saw a point guard with an elite team throw more careless, lackadaisical passes. It is hard to believe they have survived. Loder, meanwhile, is long and lean and athletic and can do it all, except that she didn’t do any of it in the semi until it no longer mattered whether she did or not. I mean she was literally scoreless. Which one is more likely to right the ship? Advantage: Orono.
Shooting Guard—Orono plays Anna Hughes and Jordan Case. They score about 6 ppg between them. Winona counters with Justine Schultz, who has had a stellar tournament, especially in terms of scoring, so far, doubling her regular season average with about 10 ppg. Advantage: Winona.
So the matchups are 2-to-1 Winona with 2 even but, again, the Andrew-Nibbelink matchup will overshadow everything else. Both teams will need a good performance at this position to win the game. Nibbelink has more upside but is less consistent. Abby Winter also has the potential to be a difference-maker. Our Pick: Winona 56 Orono 52, if the Winhawks guards control the turnovers.