Introducing the Prep Girls Hoops Minnesota Team Ratings
Practice has begun around the state so it’s time to debut the inaugural Prep Girls Hoops Minnesota Team Ratings. This is a computer rating system that takes into account a team’s scores. The philosophy of these ratings is, how did you play against the teams you played. If we are truly trying to determine the better team, a one point loss to a state tournament team should not be valued less than a one point win over a below average team, thus there is an adjustment for each opponent. In order to effectively use scores, the margin of victory must be an important part. There is also an adjustment to lessen the value of blowouts and devalue running up the score. A 40 point win and 60 point win are not as different as the system gives them credit for.
Each team receives an offensive and defensive rating from each game, adjusted for opponent. Those ratings are averaged across all games to get an overall offensive and defensive rating, and the difference is the reported efficiency rating for that team. The higher the efficiency rating, the better the team. Only games between teams from Minnesota qualify for a rating since they need to be adjusted.
The current preseason ratings can be found at the Minnesota Team Rankings page. The preseason ratings are found by using a simple weighted average of the previous three years ratings. The most recent years carry the most weight. They do not take into account any player losses or additions. The preseason ratings just provide a starting point for the system. They will be gradually removed as the season goes on. Once a team has played eight games, the preseason ratings will be gone.
At the top of the rankings in each class are Hopkins (AAAA), Holy Angels (AAA), Roseau (AA), and Mountain Iron-Buhl (A). These have been consistently strong programs over the past three years. In fact, all four teams have won at least one game in the state tournament each of the past three years. Hopkins takes the top spot in the statewide rankings. You may notice some high rankings for the strong class A programs. The lack of match-ups between classes means that there is potential for the lower classes to be more highly rated.
I look forward to providing everyone with these ratings this season. I will be following up on which teams had big wins and which teams have made the biggest gains each week throughout the season!