By the Numbers, Vol. 1: Nov. 21 through Dec. 1
This is the first of a weekly column that will describe the most interesting numerical occurrences of the past week. With a ranking system comes opportunities galore for statistical analysis, and that is what you find here. Using the 402…
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Continue ReadingThis is the first of a weekly column that will describe the most interesting numerical occurrences of the past week. With a ranking system comes opportunities galore for statistical analysis, and that is what you find here. Using the 402 games played since the start of the season, we will highlight most teams for their good performances during the week, and a few that hope to do better next week.
My favorite thing the numbers are able to do is predict the scores for each game. Each week this will be a space where I share a few of those predictions. Next to those predictions will be what I call the Potential Excitement Value (PEV) for the game. Based on the ratings I was also able to create an algorithm that determines what the best games around the state will be each day. This is a score out of 100 that is calculated using the things that most people look for in an exciting game: good teams, competitive, and lots of points. Without further ado…
Biggest Upset
Battle Lake 56, Wheaton/Herman-Norcross 55 (0.56% chance of upset)
Upsets in the beginning of the season are tricky. Many teams are so different due to graduation, that there is no way that the model can accurately rate them. Wheaton/Herman-Norcross had won more than 20 games in each of the past three seasons. Battle Lake was coming off of seasons of 16, 5, and 9 wins. That is a recipe for a small win probability, but that is why they play the game. Well done Battlers!
Honorable Mention: Central Minnesota Christian 43, Sleepy Eye 34 (1.08%), Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted 47, Watertown-Mayer 39 (1.69%)
Biggest Gainers
A – Swanville (preseason Class A #80, currently #42)
You’ll see a common theme with these. Since the ratings are relatively fresh, teams that win by a lot move up a lot. The adjustment for opponent is not yet as helpful for this year’s games. It will work itself out fairly soon, but the rankings will still be volatile for a couple of weeks. Swanville beat Onamia by scoring a lot of points (73-42) and Hinckley-Finlayson by not giving up very many (48-14).
AA – Duluth Marshall (preseason Class AA #55, currently #6)
Three games for Duluth Marshall this week and they scored 112, 85, and 82 points. That is not likely for that to hold up for very long but regardless, they are still nice numbers. Their competition wasn’t great, but Deer River has put together some solid seasons and the Hilltoppers still won 85-49.
AAA – Hill-Murray (preseason Class AAA #23, currently #4)
Beginning the season with a win over Holy Family was a great start for the Pioneers. Taking care of business in the next three helped propel them up the rankings to where they currently sit. It should be a fun year watching the competitiveness at the top of section 4AAA.
AAAA – Chaska (preseason Class AAAA #34, currently #14)
Chaska made a late push for this spot with their dismantling of Maple Grove on Saturday at the Breakdown. Going 3-0 for the week, the Hawks added wins over solid programs in Edina and Shakopee.
Biggest Fallers
A – Cedar Mountain (preseason Class A #25, currently #66)
No longer a co-op with Comfrey, Cedar Mountain had some high expectations to live up to. They’ll have to get their offense going if they intend to do just that as they have 39 total points through two games.
AA – Osakis (preseason Class AA #33, currently #68)
The Silverstreaks have started 0-2 with losses to Holdingford and Albany. No shame in either of those losses, but the bar was set high due to some previous success.
AAA – Orono (preseason Class AAA #11, currently #36)
Orono’s preseason rating was largely due to their state championship run two years ago. They did most of the falling after the two losses to Roseville and Minneapolis North, but have settled in after wins over Dassel-Cokato and Blake.
AAAA – Park of Cottage Grove (preseason Class AAAA #23, currently #46)
Losses to Apple Valley, Eagan, and Henry Sibley have pushed Park down the rankings. Historically not a high scoring team, Park has scored 35 points in all three games this year. They will need more than that, not much more but more nonetheless, if they want to turn things around.
Highest Scoring Games
Whether it is efficient offense or just fast paced, people like a lot of points. What a week it was for fans of scoring! We saw a state record for individual points in a game by McKenna Hofschild McKenna Hofschild 5'3" | PG Prior Lake | 2019 State MN with 63. She outscored seven games this week, between two teams, all by herself. This is probably not the last time we will see Prior Lake on this list this year.
- Park Center 99, Prior Lake 95
- St. Paul Como Park 87, Robbinsdale Cooper 81
- Waconia 88, Chanhassen 77
- St. Louis Park 90, Tartan 71
- Lake City 85, Triton 70
Predictions for Next Week
This week the predictions will focus on some of the best games each day according to the PEV.
Monday
- Perham @ Park Rapids (Perham 66-62 PEV: 74.2)
Tuesday
- St. Michael-Albertville @ Park Center (STMA 76-74 PEV: 88.7)
- Pequot Lakes @ Proctor (Proctor 56-52 PEV: 82.6)
Thursday
- New Prague @ Prior Lake (Prior Lake 79-77 PEV: 81.8)
Friday
- DeLaSalle @ Robbinsdale Cooper (DeLaSalle 77-68 PEV: 80.3)
- Forest Lake @ Stillwater (Stillwater 65-64 PEV: 83.4)
- Chaska @ Eden Prairie (Eden Prairie 58-56 PEV: 82.0)
- Red Wing @ Northfield (Northfield 55-52 PEV: 78.0)
Saturday
- Kasson-Mantorville @ Stewartville (Stewartville 63-62 PEV: 80.2)