By the Numbers, Vol. 5: Dec. 26 through Jan. 5
So far, I have been mostly pleased with the success of the ranking system. As of the current update, the overall top 100 consists of 15 teams from Class A, 31 teams from Class AA, 22 from Class AAA, and…
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Continue ReadingSo far, I have been mostly pleased with the success of the ranking system. As of the current update, the overall top 100 consists of 15 teams from Class A, 31 teams from Class AA, 22 from Class AAA, and 32 from Class AAAA. The large number of teams from Class AA comes mainly from the 51-100 range as Stewartville is the 8th ranked team in the class and currently sits at #50 overall.
That being said, there are some things that are not perfect about the system as is. In the biggest upsets this week, you will see two games where the team from the larger class came through with a major upset against the smaller schools. Were they upsets? I would say yes. Are they as big of an upset of the system gives them credit for? Probably not.
So the question then becomes, why does this happen? The explanation I have is that the system can only use the data that it has. At that point of the season, that is eight to ten games which is not a large amount of data points. Also, teams are not the same every time they step on the court and it is entirely possible for the better team to play their worst game, while the lesser team plays their best game. Upsets happen, it’s part of what makes the game fun. I guess that is why they play the game on the court and not on the computer!
Biggest Upset
Park of Cottage Grove 56, Lake City 47 (1.12% chance of upset)
Coming into this game, Park was winless in eight tries and had only been within ten points twice. Lake City had only dropped one game and had been putting up large numbers on the scoreboard. Park did not allow them to put up a large number and was able to come out on top.
Honorable Mention: Minneapolis Henry 50, PACT 49 (1.72%), South St. Paul 53, Randolph 44 (2.45%)
Biggest Gainers
A – Hope Academy (last week Class A #116, currently #94)
Hope Academy only played one game in the week and a half and it was a 70-37 victory over Christian Life Academy. When you are projected to win by 7, and the result is a 33-point victory, you can expect to move up, a lot.
AA – Windom (last week Class AA #87, currently #67)
Windom went 4-0 including two wins in their own holiday tournament. The most impressive thing about the Eagles this week was the versatility in which they won. Not only did they win a close game with Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg by scoring 79 points, they also won another game over Canby by scoring 48 points.
AAA – Big Lake (last week Class AAA #28, currently #19)
To become the biggest gainer, it is all about surpassing the expectations the system has set for you. That is exactly what the Hornets did. Projected to beat Orono by 23, won by 29. Projected to lose to Proctor by 14, won by 18. Projected to lose to Buffalo by 7, only lost by 4. Big Lake is attempting to make sure that Becker and Willmar continue looking over their shoulder in Section 5AAA.
AAAA – Prior Lake (last week Class AAAA #26, currently #13)
Coming into the holiday break at 2-5, you knew the Lakers were going to improve their record. They did so by winning four in a row by, each by more than 16 points. The competition was not quite as strong as their previous games, but the way in which they handled each opponent is still impressive. It sets up an intriguing matchup with #3 Farmington this Tuesday.
Biggest Fallers
A – West Lutheran (last week Class A #95, currently #130)
Three losses of ten or more points when the worst expected result of the three was a six-point loss is the reason why West Lutheran continues to tumble down the rankings. I’m hoping this will be the last time they appear on the bi
AA – Pine City (last week Class AA #33, currently #50)
A 3-1 record did not stop Pine City from falling down the rankings. The main culprits in the drop was the 22-point win over Sauk Rapids-Rice that was expected to be a 38-point win and a 13-point loss to Foley when it was expected to be a four-point loss. They actually exceeded expectations in their wins over Perham and Sartell-St. Stephen, but it did not make up for the big drops in the other games.
AAA – Princeton (last week Class AAA #22, currently #28)
Princeton began their post-Christmas play with a win over St. Cloud Apollo that didn’t move the needle one way or the other. Their second game was a 24-point loss to Becker that was twelve points worse than expected. An eleven-point win over Zimmerman was eight points short of expectations, while their eight-point win was five points shy of the predicted amount.
AAAA – Moorhead (last week Class AAAA #21, currently #14)
In a 2-1 week, the Spuds underperformed. They beat Red Lake by nine and New Prague by five to win their holiday tournament. They were supposed to have won both games by more. There is no shame in finishing the week with a loss to Hopkins, but we will leave the score out.
Highest Scoring Games
I am holding out hope that someday this year there will be a 200-point game. We’ve been within eight points twice now and I’m guessing there were a handful of missed shots in those games, meaning we can definitely get there.
- Osseo 98, Red Lake 94 (2 OT)
- Robbinsdale Cooper 90, St. Louis Park 85
- Prior Lake 97, BOLD 73
- Mesabi East 82, Duluth Marshall 79
- Windom 79, Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg 76
Predictions for Next Week
Predictions are back! Predictions can and will change throughout the week. The predictions you see below are if the game would be played right now based on the data currently entered. If you would like a specific game prediction that is not on the list below, feel free to make a comment below or ask me on twitter, @MNBBRatings.
Monday
- Tri-City United @ Medford (Medford 64-55 PEV: 72.7)
- Esko @ Proctor (Proctor 47-44 PEV: 76.0)
Tuesday
- Farmington @ Prior Lake (Farmington 82-73 PEV: 85.5)
- Benilde-St. Margaret’s @ Chaska (Chaska 59-58 PEV: 87.3)
- Shakopee @ Lakeville South (Lakeville South 52-51 PEV: 82.8)
- Hibbing @ Grand Rapids (Hibbing 60-58 PEV: 80.6)
- Waseca @ New Ulm (New Ulm 56-52 PEV: 84.5)
Wednesday
- Robbinsdale Armstrong @ Eden Prairie (Eden Prairie 57-47 PEV: 76.3)
Thursday
- Elk River @ Centennial (Centennial 54-51 PEV: 84.4)
- Lakeville North @ Apple Valley (Apple Valley 71-60 PEV: 77.7)
- Waterville-Elysian-Morristown @ Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial (WEM 56-55 PEV:71.6)
Friday
- Roseau @ Pequot Lakes (Roseau 66-63 PEV: 84.4)
- Moorhead @ Minnetonka (Minnetonka 60-59 PEV: 83.1)
- Austin @ Northfield (Northfield 67-66 PEV: 70.7)
Saturday
- Lake City vs. Norwood Young America (Norwood Young America 73-68 PEV:79.3)
- Goodhue vs. Mountain Iron-Buhl (Mountain Iron-Buhl 63-49 PEV: 75.4)
Apologies for the Week
Glencoe-Silver Lake – A mistake on the score of their game with Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop caused them to be the Biggest Faller for Class AA. I always hope the information I find is accurate, and that I enter it accurately, but mistakes happen. So I apologize to the Panthers for that error!