By the Numbers, Vol. 6: The Curious Case of Como Park
There may not be a more interesting schedule to look at in the entire state than that of St. Paul Como Park. Before the turn of the new year the Cougars chose to challenge themselves against high-level competition, the they…
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Continue ReadingThere may not be a more interesting schedule to look at in the entire state than that of St. Paul Como Park. Before the turn of the new year the Cougars chose to challenge themselves against high-level competition, the they responded with an 8-1 record. This included wins over two AAAA squads, a reigning state champion, and two perennial state tournament teams in class AA. Their only loss came to a Holy Angels squad by a single basket. Their schedule strength rated 8th in all of class AAA.
Then the new year turned over and conference play began. The conference schedule is not something that the Cougars have control over. So far Como Park has played three games in conference, and their strength of schedule now sits at 56th, ahead of only conference foes St. Paul Harding and St. Paul Highland Park. Their schedule strength may not drop below 56th, but it will not improve either.
The model gives the Cougars an 82.5% chance of winning the rest of their regular season games (not including the Minneapolis vs. St. Paul showdown at the end of the year). To put that into perspective, the 82.5% includes their game against Minneapolis South this Saturday in which they have an 83.3% chance to win. The rest of their games can be classified in the “no contest” category. The second lowest percentage to win an individual game is 99.6% at St. Paul Highland Park on January 24. It is as close to a certainty that they will win the other nine games as I can commit to being a probability person.
The question then becomes how does the rating system handle this. To be honest, I am not yet sure. I do know that it will be very difficult for the Cougars to live up to the expectations set by the model, because I find it hard to believe a team would even want to win a game by 130 points, even if they could. For now, we will just need to keep an eye on them and their ranking. We will also be wary of that come playoff time because they could be a team that the computers are not fond of, but they are a very real threat in a competitive section.
Biggest Upset
St. Croix Prep 38, Southwest Christian 35 (0.62% chance of upset)
St. Croix Prep is responsible for the two biggest upsets of the week. That is not normal. Southwest Christian had been competitive with some pretty good teams, including an overtime win over Jordan early in the year. Congrats to the Lions for flipping the script on the rankings this week!
Honorable Mention: St. Croix Prep 68, New Life Academy 51 (2.85%), Chanhassen 79, St. Louis Park 74 (5.33%)
Biggest Gainers
A – Red Rock Central (last week Class A #53, currently #33)
Red Rock Central proved they can compete with quality opponents this week by beating Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s by 13 and only losing to our #11 class A team in Hills-Beaver Creek by seven.
AA – Byron (last week Class AA #72, currently #62)
Byron played one game, and lost. But based on their results earlier in the season, a nine-point loss to Rochester Lourdes is a significant improvement. They also benefited from a bunch of teams around them underperforming greatly.
AAA – DeLaSalle (last week Class AAA #8, currently #2)
The Islanders were one of the final teams to get rid of the preseason portion of their ratings. Now that those are gone, DeLaSalle is benefitting from the success of their early opponents. This week, they added victories over St. Anthony Village, Columbia Heights, and Moorhead.
AAAA – Minnetonka (last week Class AAAA #23, currently #18)
Part of becoming the biggest gainer for the week involves a little luck (unless I switch the requirements to the change in a team’s rating instead of their ranking). Minnetonka benefits from this as they went 1-1 on the week, beating Moorhead and losing to solid Apple Valley squad.
Biggest Fallers
A – McGregor (last week Class A #86, currently #106)
McGregor began the week by beating Silver Bay quite handily, but the overtime loss to Cook County is the reason the they became the week’s biggest faller.
AA – New Life Academy (last week Class AA #86, currently #101)
It was a bad week to start ranked #86 in your class, I guess. In their two games this week, New Life Academy was beaten by 64 and by 17 in the second biggest upset of the week.
AAA – New Ulm (last week Class AAA #2, currently #8)
The Eagles swapped places with DeLaSalle this week. This week provided a huge test for New Ulm as they hosted Waseca (lost by 26), travelled to Fairmont (won by 23), and travelled to Kasson-Mantorville for a neutral court showdown with Simley (lost by 1). Most teams would struggle with a week like that, and unfortunately for the Eagles, it placed them here.
AAAA – Rosemount (last week Class AAAA #17, currently #24)
Rosemount is one of the teams who helped push Minnetonka into the biggest gainer spot for the week. Two losses, including a 30-point drubbing by Burnsville, have pushed the Irish down to #24 in Class AAAA.
Highest Scoring Games
Low scoring week, with 149 points being a top five game. This week also includes the biggest blowout we’ve had so far in our highest scoring games with a 55-point win for Mountain Iron-Buhl over North Woods.
- Lakeville North 90, Burnsville 74
- Jackson County Central 83, Worthington 79
- Norwood Young America 80, Lake City 78 (OT)
- Chanhassen 79, St. Louis Park 74
- Mountain Iron-Buhl 102, North Woods 47
Predictions for Next Week
I’ve begun to put predictions on Twitter so they are accurate throughout the week. Remember, they change throughout the week based on the results from earlier in the week. I will still put a few games in the column, but the mass of predictions can be found on Twitter.
Monday
- Sauk Centre @ Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa (Sauk Centre 57-45 PEV: 72.6)
Tuesday
- Annandale @ New London-Spicer (New London-Spicer 50-46 PEV: 75.7)
- Apple Valley @ Burnsville (Apple Valley 73-65 PEV: 81.8)
- Chaska @ Robbinsdale Cooper (Chaska 77-76 PEV: 90.1)
- Shakopee @ Lakeville North (Lakeville North 62-61 PEV: 83.5)
- Alexandria @ Willmar (Willmar 55-54 PEV: 86.2)
Wednesday
- Maple Grove @ Wayzata (Wayzata 62-39 PEV: 67.5)
Thursday
- DeLaSalle @ Holy Angels (Holy Angels 67-66 PEV: 88.9)
- Rochester Lourdes @ Zumbrota-Mazeppa (Zumbrota-Mazeppa 66-63 PEV: 82.1)
- Minneota @ Lac qui Parle Valley (Minneota 63-54 PEV: 78.4)
Friday
- Eastview @ Farmington (Farmington 53-50 PEV: 86.4)
- Hawley @ Fergus Falls (Fergus Falls 58-57 PEV: 77.8)
- Esko @ Pequot Lakes (Pequot Lakes 47-46 PEV: 79.4)
Saturday
- Elk River @ Moorhead (Elk River 57-54 PEV: 81.9)