By the Numbers, Vol. 8: The Big 9 Conundrum
The Big 9 presents a problem for the rating system. In my defense, the conference does not help itself out. First of all, by playing a double round robin the conference only leaves four non-conference games. This means the conference…
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Continue ReadingThe Big 9 presents a problem for the rating system. In my defense, the conference does not help itself out. First of all, by playing a double round robin the conference only leaves four non-conference games. This means the conference data is mostly a closed group of information. The rating system should do a fabulous job to rate the teams within the conference (which I believe it does) but comparing the Big 9 to the rest of the state is made more difficult.
The other reason the Big 9 is not helping itself is because it is not a very good conference overall. The bottom of the conference makes it difficult for the teams at the top to exceed their expectations. For example, top conference teams playing games against Rochester Century, Albert Lea, Winona, Owatonna and Faribault will counteract their wins over teams such as Goodhue, Waseca, New Ulm, Kasson-Mantorville and each other.
So for now, Red Wing sits at #17 in AAA, Mankato West at #20, Austin at #30, and Northfield at #34. Rochester John Marshall and Rochester Mayo are at #31 and #43 in AAAA respectively. The predictions have gone well inside of the conference, but the top teams in the conference have outperformed expectations in their limited opportunities outside of the conference. The AAA teams are all contenders in their respective sections, while the Rochester schools in section 1AAAA have to get past Farmington and the Lakeville schools.
Remaining Unbeatens
- Minneota: 86.09% chance to finish unbeaten
- Hills-Beaver Creek: 68.24%
- Hopkins: 60.41%
- Eden Valley-Watkins: 56.95%
- Stephen-Argyle: 49.91%
- Menahga: 21.29%
- Medford: 17.96%
- Grand Meadow: 6.07%
- Wayzata: 1.70%
Biggest Upset
Browerville/Eagle Valley 59, Brandon/Evansville 44 (3.32% chance of upset)
This was the start of a bad week for Brandon/Evansville. The Chargers rough week will be detailed a little more below (they played four games this week, including Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), but all you really need to know is that coming into this game, they were 12-2 while Browerville/Eagle Valley was 3-10 against similar competition.
Honorable Mention: Minneapolis North 65, Pequot Lakes 62 (4.28%), Madelia 39, St. James 32 (4.68%)
Biggest Gainers
A – Cromwell-Wright (last week Class A #6, currently #4)
- 1/21 vs. Mountain Iron-Buhl W 78-58 (predicted score 55-69)
- 1/24 vs. Esko W 62-52 (60-52)
AA – New London-Spicer (last week Class AA #18, currently #7)
- 1/22 vs. Glencoe-Silver Lake W 49-25 (54-42)
- 1/24 @ Litchfield W 72-31 (57-51)
- 1/26 @ Mound Westonka W 61-35 (57-44)
AAA – Faribault (last week Class AAA #50, currently #49)
- 1/22 vs. Waseca L 41-64 (21-68)
- 1/25 @ Albert Lea W 61-38 (50-45)
AAAA – Coon Rapids (last week Class AAAA #55, currently #54)
- 1/22 vs. Osseo L 59-60 (55-58)
- 1/25 @ Elk River 42-66 (32-63)
- 1/26 vs. Stewartville @ Target Center L 51-59 (41-73)
Biggest Fallers
A – Brandon/Evansville (last week Class A #28, currently #40)
- 1/22 @ Rothsay W 47-35 (56-27)
- 1/24 @ Browerville/Eagle Valley L 44-59 (52-32)
- 1/25 vs. Melrose L 27-40 (45-38)
- 1/26 vs. Hawley @ Concordia-Moorhead L 36-48 (38-51)
AA – Stewartville (last week Class AA #6, currently #9)
- 1/21 vs. Rosemount @ St. Kate’s L 50-60 (54-51)
- 1/24 vs. Kenyon-Wanamingo W 70-39 (76-41)
- 1/26 vs. Coon Rapids @ Target Center W 59-51 (73-41)
AAA – Alexandria (last week Class AAA #6, currently #10)
- 1/22 vs. Willmar L 45-58 (56-54)
- 1/25 @ St. Cloud Tech W 65-51 (80-39)
AAAA – Eastview (last week Class AAAA #6, currently #7)
- 1/21 vs. Simley @ St. Kate’s W 61-44 (57-45)
- 1/22 vs. Shakopee L 52-60 OT (55-41)
- 1/25 vs. Eagan W 46-42 (62-30)
Highest Scoring Games
Average total in games this week was 106.9 points. Lakeville North was the winner in two of our highest scoring games this week. The 173 points between International Falls and North Woods was good for the fifth highest output this season.
- International Falls 89, North Woods 84
- Lakeville North 83, Prior Lake 76
- Kelliher/Northome 80, Clearbrook-Gonvick 74
- Lakeville North 84, Lakeville South 70
- Southwest MN Christian 85, Mountain Lake/Comfrey 69
Predictions for Next Week
Predictions can be found on Twitter (@MNBBRatings) so they are accurate throughout the week. Remember, they change throughout the week based on the results from earlier in the week. I will still put a few games in the column, but the mass of predictions can be found on Twitter.
Monday
- Park Rapids @ Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton (Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton 72-71 PEV: 78.0)
Tuesday
- Prior Lake @ Rosemount (Prior Lake 64-61 PEV: 82.1)
- Maple Grove @ Centennial (Centennial 47-46 PEV: 84.7)
- Rochester Lourdes @ Kasson-Mantorville (Rochester Lourdes 69-65 PEV: 78.9)
- New Ulm @ Waconia (New Ulm 73-67 PEV: 83.2)
Thursday
- Louis Park @ Robbinsdale Cooper (Robbinsdale Cooper 74-73 PEV: 88.3)
- Buffalo @ Big Lake (Buffalo 63-61 PEV: 75.6)
- Crosby-Ironton @ Pequot Lakes (Pequot Lakes 59-53 PEV: 75.3)
Friday
- Farmington @ Apple Valley (Farmington 60-54 PEV: 84.5)
- Eden Prairie @ Minnetonka (Eden Prairie 58-55 PEV: 82.4)
- Roseau @ Ada-Borup/Norman County West (Roseau 77-69 PEV: 82.1)
Saturday
- West Central Area @ Morris/Chokio-Alberta (Morris/Chokio-Alberta 68-65 PEV: 75.0)