By the Numbers, Vol. 10: Will Defense Win Championships?

We hear it all the time, defense win championships. So will that ring true this year? The answer to that won't be found until March, but we can take at the highest rated teams and defenses in each section. Class A The best rated defensive team in each section also happens to be the highest rated team in the section. Currently, the system rates the following teams as the best defensive AND overall teams in each their respective sections: Goodhue, BOLD, Minneota, Heritage Christian, Menahga, Pelican Rapids, Mountain Iron-Buhl, and Stephen-Argyle. There are obviously other teams in each section that will have a say, but if defense determines the state participants, these teams have a great chance. Class AA Just five of the top section teams in Class AA are also the best defensive teams in their section. Zumbrota-Mazeppa, Norwood-Young America, Eden Valley-Watkins, Minnehaha Academy, and Proctor fit that description. Holy Family (Maranatha Christian), Sauk Centre (Rush City), and Roseau (East Grand Forks) are not rated as the best defensive teams in their sections. It may come as no surprise then, that those three do take the honors of being the highest rated offensive teams in their section. Class AAA Seven of eight teams that are rated the highest, are also the top defensive teams in their section. Red Wing, Waseca, Hill-Murray, Willmar, Benilde-St. Margaret's, Hibbing, and Alexandria are all the defensive leaders and overall leaders in their respective sections. The lone leader who is not their section's best defensive team is Holy Angels, who is second to Simley in section 3. Class AAAA The least defense dominant class of all is AAAA. Five teams double up as highest rated overall and defensively. Farmington, Eastview, Stillwater, Hopkins, and Forest Lake are those five teams. This is where it gets interesting. St. Michael-Albertville rates second in section 8 behind Maple Grove. Park Center rates third in section 5 behind both Roseville and Centennial. Chaska actually rates fourth in section 2 behind Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, and Edina. The really weird thing is Chaska also doesn't rate first in offense. That honor goes to Prior Lake. Remaining Unbeatens <ul> <li>Medford 19.38%</li> <li>Grand Meadow 42.43%</li> <li>Stephen-Argyle 61.04%</li> <li>Hopkins 67.64%</li> <li>Hills-Beaver Creek 68.4%</li> <li>Eden Valley-Watkins 85.93%</li> <li>Minneota 87.33%</li> </ul> Biggest Upset Watertown-Mayer 53, New London-Spicer 46 (4.68% chance of upset) The Royals were coming off three wins in a row, but the Wildcats had rattled off six in a row and ten of the last eleven. Included in one of those ten wins was a 22 point win on the road over these very Royals. Honorable Mention: Hill City/Northland 67, McGregor 66 (5.72%), Paynesville 61, Kimball 52 (6.12%) Biggest Gainers A – Ely (last week Class A #102, currently #92) <ul> <li>2/4 vs. Mountain Iron-Buhl L 41-75 (predicted score 24-88)</li> <li>2/5 vs. Cook County W 41-40 (53-43)</li> <li>2/7 @ Mesabi East L 40-72 (39-77)</li> </ul> AA – La Crescent/Hokah (last week Class AA #100, currently #93) <ul> <li>2/4 vs. St. Charles W 59-57 (53-68)</li> <li>2/8 @ Lewiston-Altura W 62-57 (49-51)</li> </ul> AAA – Columbia Heights (last week Class AAA #56, currently #55 <ul> <li>2/5 vs. St. Anthony Village L 39-45 (28-62)</li> </ul> AAAA – Rosemount (last week Class AAAA #22, currently #21) <ul> <li>2/5 vs. Eastview W 57-45 (41-51)</li> <li>2/7 vs. Farmington W 57-55 OT (41-53)</li> </ul> Biggest Fallers A – Kingsland (last week Class A #57, currently #66) <ul> <li>2/4 @ Chatfield L 54-66 (59-51)</li> <li>2/8 @ Lanesboro W 57-54 (59-39)</li> <li>2/9 vs. St. Charles L 60-62 (67-74)</li> </ul> AA – Maple River (last week Class AA #60, currently #55) <ul> <li>2/4 vs. St. Peter L 43-60 (47-55)</li> <li>2/8 @ Medford 43-69 (46-63)</li> <li>2/9 @ Blue Earth L 31-61 (51-59)</li> </ul> AAA – Benilde-St. Margaret's (last week Class AAA #3, currently #10) <ul> <li>2/5 vs. Chaska L 45-64 (56-54)</li> <li>2/9 vs. Minnetonka L 40-52 (50-43)</li> </ul> AAAA – Apple Valley (last week Class AAAA #8, currently #11) <ul> <li>2/5 vs. Eagan W 48-38 (64-36)</li> <li>2/6 vs. Lakeville South W 57-52 (62-49)</li> <li>2/8 @ Eastview L 34-62 (51-55)</li> </ul> Highest Scoring Games Average total in games this week was 108.8 points in a limited number of games this week. Centennial just missed the century mark in their matchup with Osseo, and the total of 171 was good for the 6th highest total this season. <ul> <li>Centennial 99, Osseo 72</li> <li>Kasson-Mantorville 93, Lake City 75</li> <li>Roseau 84, Crookston 78 (OT)</li> <li>International Falls 82, Duluth Marshall 80 (2OT)</li> <li>Grand Rapids 87, Hermantown 72</li> </ul> Predictions for Next Week Predictions can be found on Twitter (@MNBBRatings) so they are accurate throughout the week. Remember, they change throughout the week based on the results from earlier in the week. Hopefully the games I put here aren't postponed! Also, I will still put a few games in the column, but the mass of predictions can be found on Twitter. Monday <ul> <li>Belle Plaine @ Waterville-Elysian-Morristown (Waterville-Elysian-Morristown 54-52 PEV: 68.2)</li> </ul> Tuesday <ul> <li>New London-Spicer @ Annandale (New London-Spicer 48-47 PEV: 80.2)</li> <li>Eastview @ Prior Lake (Eastview 68-61 PEV: 81.8)</li> <li>Willmar @ Fergus Falls (Willmar 57-52 PEV: 80.2)</li> <li>Stewartville @ Zumbrota-Mazeppa (Zumbrota-Mazeppa 64-60 PEV: 82.8)</li> </ul> Wednesday <ul> <li>Totino-Grace @ Spring Lake Park (Spring Lake Park 59-56 PEV: 66.9)</li> </ul> Thursday <ul> <li>Farmington @ Eastview (Farmington 51-49 PEV: 86.2)</li> <li>Holy Angels @ Eden Prairie (Eden Prairie 72-69 PEV: 86.6)</li> <li>Alexandria @ Fergus Falls (Alexandria 56-53 PEV: 80.8)</li> </ul> Friday <ul> <li>Grand Rapids @ Robbinsdale Cooper (Robbinsdale Cooper 76-70 PEV: 81.2)</li> <li>Centennial @ Elk River (Centennial 54-52 PEV: 82.9)</li> <li>Rochester Lourdes @ Goodhue (Goodhue 58-52 PEV: 80.1)</li> </ul> Saturday <ul> <li>Rosemount @ Lakeville North (Lakeville North 59-56 PEV: 80.4)</li> <li>Hill-Murray @ Marshall (Marshall 50-49 PEV: 83.2)</li> </ul>