By the Numbers, Vol. 13: The Playoff Edition
There are three things that stick out to me during the playoffs. The first is how prevalent are upsets, the second is are points more difficult to come by, and the third is how significant are the blowouts in the…
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Continue ReadingThere are three things that stick out to me during the playoffs. The first is how prevalent are upsets, the second is are points more difficult to come by, and the third is how significant are the blowouts in the first round.
To tackle the first question, I first looked at the number of upsets by seed. Out of the 363 playoff games played, there were 64 instances in which a lower seeded team won. 299-64 is a winning percentage of 82.4%. There is no way to use this information to determine how many upsets were expected, but it still shows that even though 64 seems like a large number, the higher seed still won four out of five games. In an eight team section, there are only 7 games, so you would only expect one or maybe two upsets. In a 16 team section, there are 15 games, so you would expect three upsets. When phrased this way, the number of upsets does not seem outrageous.
I also used the computer to determine how prevalent the upsets were because that would help compare how many upsets were expected based on the quality of the teams. Not all 8 vs. 9 or all 4 vs. 5 matchups are created equal. If you believe the computer ratings to be accurate, then there were 62 upsets in the 363 games. In those same games, the computer expected there to be 54 upsets which means there were about 15% more upsets than expected.
To answer the second question about points per game, we can look at point averages throughout the season, starting with the entire season.
- Full season: 105.6 points per game
- Playoff: 104.3 ppg
A drop of 1.3 ppg per game from the regular season may seem fairly insignificant but does that mean much? Most people would say that defense is ahead of offense early in the season, so let’s remove that from the equation and compare it to just February.
- February (non-playoff): 106.5 ppg
- Playoff: 104.3 ppg
This shows an even bigger drop in points per game from regular season to playoffs. The next argument might be that there are a lot of blowouts in the beginning of the playoffs so teams won’t score as much in those games.
- February (non-playoff): 106.5 ppg
- Section finals: 103.2 ppg
Dropping more than three points per game is significant and definitely represents a trend. Even though 32 games is a small sample size, I believe it is something you will see every year. I don’t believe it is a lack of execution that leads to fewer points in the playoffs. Strategy changes when you enter a “win or you’re done” format. The pace of a game slows down and each possession is valued a little bit more.
Finally, the first round of the playoffs is often criticized for the gigantic blowouts. You will find no arguments here, but you will also find no solutions here, sorry. What you will find are numbers. The average margin of victory for February 27 and 28, which are the days for most first round matchups, was 26.3 points. That’s a lot and very rarely is a 26 point game competitive very long. For comparison, the average margin of victory in the 32 section final matchups was 12.6 points. Although that still seems like a large number, a 13 point game is typically competitive throughout.
Biggest Upset
Redwood Valley 62, Eden Valley-Watkins 58 (2.35% chance of upset)
Of all the upsets mentioned above, one stood out above the rest. Redwood Valley completed their second upset in a row and saved the biggest one for last. Eden Valley-Watkins went through the entire year undefeated until the section finals where the Cardinals gave them their first defeat.
Honorable Mention: Spring Lake Park 67, Park Center 59 (7.13%), Totino-Grace 54, Hill-Murray 52 (8.71%)
Highest Scoring Games
As mentioned above, the average total in the 363 playoff games this week was 104.3 points which is a drop off from most weekly totals. The highest scoring game of 168 points between Concordia Academy and New Life Academy is the 12th highest total for the season.
- Concordia Academy 92, New Life Academy 76
- Woodbury 88, Tartan 77
- Roseau 84, Breckenridge 71
- Duluth Marshall 89, International Falls 58
- Louis Park 76, Bloomington Kennedy 70 (OT)
- BOLD 91, Cleveland 55
Predictions
There will be State Tournament preview columns, so you can find the first round predictions in those. Later predictions can be found on Twitter (@MNBBRatings).