State Tournament Preview By the Numbers: AAAA and AAA
The State Tournaments get underway on Wednesday. Here’s what the computer has to say about the Class AAAA and AAA tournaments. Class AAAA SeedTeamSemisFinalChamp1 in ??? 1Hopkins99.9598.2788.361.1 3St. Michael-Albertville92.4665.128.911 RD "7"Eden Prairie61.2122.881.953 2Farmington38.7910.70.55181 4Park Center63.681.350.24410 5Stillwater36.320.380.042468 RD "6"Lakeville North7.541.30.024326 RD…
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Continue ReadingThe State Tournaments get underway on Wednesday. Here’s what the computer has to say about the Class AAAA and AAA tournaments.
Class AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Final | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hopkins | 99.95 | 98.27 | 88.36 | 1.1 |
3 | St. Michael-Albertville | 92.46 | 65.12 | 8.9 | 11 |
RD "7" | Eden Prairie | 61.21 | 22.88 | 1.9 | 53 |
2 | Farmington | 38.79 | 10.7 | 0.55 | 181 |
4 | Park Center | 63.68 | 1.35 | 0.24 | 410 |
5 | Stillwater | 36.32 | 0.38 | 0.04 | 2468 |
RD "6" | Lakeville North | 7.54 | 1.3 | 0.02 | 4326 |
RD "8" | Cambridge-Isanti | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2989828 |
Favorite: Hopkins
Contenders: Stillwater
Sleepers: Centennial, Eastview, Forest Lake
Long Shots: Maple Grove, Shakopee, Lakeville North
Analysis
The computer rates Centennial one spot ahead of Eastview and Forest Lake one spot ahead of Maple Grove. This is not a legitimate reason to argue about how the seeds fell. I have literally nothing to say. Although they are close in rating, I do believe the “random draw” played out the way it should have for Shakopee and Lakeville North. To me, this is the truest 1-8 tournament of the bunch.
Hopkins is the heavy favorite and it should come as no surprise. They just completed a three game sweep of Wayzata, the consensus #2 team in the state, and did so in convincing fashion. Stillwater has lost two games, none since December 17, and both came to the aforementioned top two teams in the state. The computer gives them better than a coin flip’s chance to play for a state title, which means they have a chance to win it. The story with the sleepers is how long can you wait before you have to play Hopkins. Centennial rates as the third best team in the tournament, but as the four seed, are more likely to have to face Hopkins in the semifinals than the other two sleepers who wouldn’t face the Royals until the championship. Because of this you can see that Centennial’s chances to make the championship game are much smaller than the other two teams labeled sleepers, but they still have a better chance to become State Champions. The first round matchup between Forest Lake and Eastview is one I plan to watch intently, as the winner would provide a fun potential matchup with Stillwater. Maple Grove’s low chances are a product of circumstances. Seeded fifth and rated sixth, their path to the championship could potentially require them to beat the third, first, and second highest rated teams in that order. Lakeville North is the only other team that would have to beat those teams, and you can see what chances they have to move on. Shakopee vs. Stillwater will be a clash of styles and it will be interesting to see which team wins that battle and how the outcome is affected due to it.
Obviously I mean no offense to Hopkins, or towards the other seven teams, but this would be a fantastic tournament if Hopkins was not in it. I’m not saying that we should give them the trophy already because they’ve been runner up three years in a row so they can be beaten, but they have been head and shoulders above everyone else in the state this season and to expect anything else in the final week would be unwise. I think the rest of the tournament will have many high quality, competitive games. That being said, my pick for the AAAA State Champion is the Hopkins Royals.
Class AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Final | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | DeLaSalle | 77.53 | 62.57 | 47.79 | 2.1 |
RD "6" | Waconia | 68.45 | 40.83 | 16.07 | 6.2 |
2 | Becker | 71.05 | 37.06 | 13.36 | 7.5 |
5 | Holy Angels | 73.17 | 21.2 | 10.53 | 9.5 |
RD "8" | Hermantown | 22.47 | 12.97 | 6.58 | 15 |
3 | Red Wing | 31.55 | 13.12 | 3.08 | 32 |
RD "7" | Alexandria | 28.95 | 8.99 | 2.1 | 48 |
4 | Simley | 26.83 | 3.26 | 0.87 | 115 |
Favorite: DeLaSalle
Contenders: Becker, Robbinsdale Cooper, Marshall, Hibbing, Holy Angels, Fergus Falls
Long Shots: Austin
Analysis
The seeding here is not outrageous, but I certainly do have a few disagreements. Fergus Falls and Hibbing are pretty close, so I’m not surprised that Fergus Falls is seed and Hibbing isn’t. However, I would have switched them. Fergus Falls has four losses by a total of 40 points. Hibbing has two losses by a total of eight points. Fergus Falls is 4-4 vs. the PGH “Top 100” while Hibbing is 7-2. Most people would guess that since Fergus Falls plays in the Central Lakes Conference, that their schedule would have been tougher, but we rate their schedule 44th in Class AAA and Hibbing’s 40th. Robbinsdale Cooper earning the second seed tells me that their extremely difficult strength of schedule was a benefit to them and that they were seeding the team that finished 13-1 and not the team that started 1-3 with losses to Holy Angels (seeded below Cooper at #4) and St. Paul Como Park (beaten by both 3 seeded Becker and Holy Angels). I do understand favoring the end of the season, but you can’t ignore the results that happened at the beginning of the year.
DeLaSalle has come on quite strong at the end of the season and has earned the role of favorite in this tournament. Their loss to Cooper was a close game in the early season and they have no losses outside of the PGH “Top 50”. The only other team that doesn’t is Marshall. As far as the contenders go, this is almost unheard of for the next six to be this close. I typically reserve “contender” status for a little higher percentage, but being that teams two through seven are all so close, I couldn’t exclude any of them. This really is quite amazing that they are all so close, but it makes sense considering their ranks in the PGH Team Rankings for Class AAA. Becker does not play in a conference with big schools, but there is some quality in the Granite Ridge. The Bulldogs went through the conference undefeated and combined it with some a more challenging non-conference schedule than you might think. Cooper benefits from drawing Austin in the first round and jumps from the sixth highest rating to the third best chance to win it all. Hibbing being unseeded and drawing the best team in DeLaSalle means they drop the farthest from the third highest rating to the fifth best chance to become champions. Marshall is an intriguing team to keep an eye on coming off of an upset of Waseca who had spent the entire second half of the season as the PGH #1 team in AAA. Fergus Falls is in the tournament after defeating an Alexandria team that has wins over three state tournament entrants. Holy Angels will be familiar with their potential second round opponent in DeLaSalle as the two are conference rivals. Austin has had quite the run and can make a statement for the Big 9 much the same way Northfield did last season.
I really want to take DeLaSalle, but then my four picks would consist of all the top seeded favorites. That doesn’t seem as fun, so I’ll go with the Becker Bulldogs. They’re playing well right now and can really make shots which will be necessary playing against the quality opponents they will face in the tournament.