It’s time to update the Prep Girls Hoops prospect rankings
I have to laugh at this time of year when pretty much everyone I meet says the same thing or something similar: ‘I’m sure you are enjoying some time off now that there are no games.’ Ha! Truth be told, this has been the busiest stretch of the calendar year. It’s always time consuming – and a whole lot of fun – compiling the Prep Girls Hoops prospect rankings in the fall. After all, it’s the first time the freshmen are sifted and sorted after we have watched them intently all summer long. This year we had even more information to work with because of the launch of the Prep Girls Hoops Top 250 Expo earlier this month.
As a result, we pushed the launch of the 2023 rankings back by 30 days, but here we are. The data has been compiled. The debating has ceased. The top 50 has been chosen. Unfortunately you will have to wait a couple more days before we reveal all of the names. Here’s what we can tell you about the group now:
- 15 of the 50 players are from beyond the boundaries of the 7-county Twin Cities region
- More than half compete on behalf of big 4A programs
- Only 3 are from Minneapolis or St. Paul city schools
- There are 5 private institutions represented totaling 6 players
- Hopkins and Eden Prairie lead the way with 4 players each. Chaska has 3.
- The 50 athletes played on 16 different teams from 11 AAU clubs this year. North Tartan leads the way with 11 players from three teams while the Fury have 10 from two teams. There are 8 Minnesota Stars, 6 Metro Stars, 5 from the Suns and two each from the Comets, Minnesota Elite and Crossfire. (Next summer half of the them will be playing elsewhere!)
- 10 of the top 50 freshmen are 6’0 or taller. A dozen are 5’6 or smaller.
How does it work?
Last year at this time we revamped the format for Minnesota’s prospect rankings. We reduced the overall number of players included to a maximum of 150 in each class and adjusted the way the list grows over time. Our logic was simple: About 150 Minnesota girls make it to college basketball each year so that became our number. Although it varies from year to year, on average about 25 players will get to Division 1 per season and another 40 or 50 will play some other level of scholarship basketball. The rest make their way onto D3 and non-scholarship JUCO rosters.
Players are ranked for the first time during the fall of their freshman year. In April we released a watch list of 25 names in alphabetical order. Now, 6 months later, all 25 of those players made the Freshmen 50, and the lowest-ranked player is 27th. I guess that means we made some good picks and the players certainly lived up to their advance billing.
We’ll add 25 more names to the 2023 list in January and 25 more next spring. The 2022 list will grow from 100 to 125 next week while the junior and senior rankings will have some fresh faces but the 150 cap will remain. Make sense?
How do we decide?
Nothing we do at Prep Girls Hoops generates more comments, emails, text messages and discussion than the player rankings – although the Top 250 Expo is certainly coming close this month! Everyone wants to know what the criteria is, and who gets to decide.
Prior to the Top 250 Expo we had our preliminary lists ready to go based on a summer’s worth of AAU ball, camps, showcases and open gyms. We made it clear that the Expo would be a great opportunity for players to get noticed or improve their ranking, and that certainly turned out to be true. A pair of 2023s snuck their way into the Freshmen 50 thanks to strong Expo play. The Class of 2022 rankings are expanding this time by 25 spots to 125 and 13 of the 25 were Expo participants. Several more put themselves on the door step for consideration next time. All nine newcomers on the 2021 list played in the Top 250, and two of them had never been evaluated before.
You didn’t need to take part to make these lists, however. We watch every form of basketball there is for high-quality players in 8th grade and above. I personally saw more than 150 high school teams over the past year, watched more than 20 hours of games at every AAU tournament and attended summer league, fall league, showcases and camps. Everyone involved in the rankings process is in the gym on a regular basis.
We have a diverse group of evaluators, and we get new people to review the information every time we update the rankings. Among the participants are current and former AAU, high school and college coaches from all levels. Everyone involved is granted anonymity. I am the only person who knows everyone else involved and I’m not telling who they are no matter how loudly you yell.
That stuff is all important but not as important as what I am going to say next:
THESE RANKINGS ARE ABOUT COLLEGE POTENTIAL, NOT CURRENT PERFORMANCE.
Let me repeat that for those of you in the back: “College potential, not current performance.” This can be hard for folks to grasp, particularly if they are new to the whole rankings thing. We ask one important question over and over – “How good will she be as a college freshman?”
Although current play is obviously a factor, our overriding goal is to predict the future. That’s why you can have a skilled freshman point guard who scores 15 points per game ranked 40 places behind a still-awkward post who plays primarily on the JV squad. Chances are the skilled guard is 5’5 and the still-evolving forward is 6’2. Height is in short supply – pardon my pun – which makes tall players more highly sought after. Nope, life isn’t fair.
There are some realities that play into the equation, too. Geography, for example. If you live 200 miles from the Twin Cities and don’t play AAU basketball you are at a distinct disadvantage for being ranked and recruited. The reality is, I can’t go to Blackduck on a Tuesday evening and most small rural schools play their games on weeknights. We have people watching across the state, but the majority are within two hours of the Twin Cities. That’s why AAU basketball is so important. It’s where the competition is. It’s where the college coaches are. It’s where you are going to get seen. That’s just how it works.
So with all that said, let the unveiling begin. Our plan is to profile the top two players in the Class of 2023 tomorrow followed by a rundown on the rest of the top 10. Then we’ll release the entire Freshmen 50. Enjoy!
Top photo: Junior Lily Peterson of Crosby-Ironton was among the players who came to the Prep Girls Hoops Top 250 Expo in hopes of improving her ranking. (Photo by Chris Drake, Prep Girls Hoops)