By the Numbers: Section 1A and 1AA Preview
With the section playoffs right around the corner, here is a free look at the previews that computer has put together for sections 1A and 1AA, which both begin with play in games on Tuesday.
1A
Below is the actual seed list along with the Final Bracketology from the computer. Note that the computer is not trying to actually predict what the seeds will be. It is listing what it thought the seeds should be based on the team’s rating and their Strength of Record.
Seed | Team | FINAL Bracketology |
1 | Blooming Prairie | 1 |
2 | Fillmore Central | 2 |
3 | Houston | 3 |
4 | Hayfield | 5 |
5 | Kingsland | 6 |
6 | Grand Meadow | 7 |
7 | Southland | 4 |
8 | Mabel-Canton | 11 |
9 | Randolph | 8 |
10 | Lanesboro | 13 |
11 | Alden-Conger/Glenville-Emmons | 10 |
12 | Lyle/Austin Pacelli | 14 |
13 | Schaeffer Academy | 16 |
14 | Spring Grove | 15 |
15 | Bethlehem Academy | 9 |
16 | Rushford-Peterson | 12 |
17 | LeRoy-Ostrander | 17 |
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Blooming Prairie | 100 | 99.97 | 99.24 | 94.63 | 84.10 | 1.2 |
2 | Fillmore Central | 100 | 99.09 | 73.26 | 59.78 | 10.96 | 9.1 |
4 | Hayfield | 100 | 99.95 | 74.63 | 4.38 | 1.73 | 58 |
3 | Houston | 100 | 99.32 | 76.13 | 21.61 | 1.54 | 65 |
7 | Southland | 100 | 99.49 | 26.67 | 16.02 | 1.42 | 70 |
5 | Kingsland | 100 | 98.35 | 25.37 | 0.87 | 0.19 | 524 |
6 | Grand Meadow | 100 | 91.58 | 23.29 | 2.57 | 0.05 | 1854 |
9 | Randolph | 100 | 89.74 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 8727 |
11 | Alden-Conger/Glenville-Emmons | 100 | 8.42 | 0.55 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 1188652 |
15 | Bethlehem Academy | 100 | 0.91 | 0.06 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 3305509 |
16 | Rushford-Peterson | 98.42 | 0.03 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 52414799 |
8 | Mabel-Canton | 100 | 10.26 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 600791684 |
14 | Spring Grove | 100 | 0.68 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1547431080 |
12 | Lyle/Austin Pacelli | 100 | 1.65 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 7440692892 |
10 | Lanesboro | 100 | 0.51 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 21948110967 |
13 | Schaeffer Academy | 100 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 582252701679 |
17 | LeRoy-Ostrander | 1.58 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 15855884677511900 |
The Favorite: Blooming Prairie is the heavy favorite and was the clear 1-seed. It would be a surprise if they don’t come out of the section.
The #1 Contender: Fillmore Central out of the 2-seed is the top contender in this section. It is valuable to be opposite the Awesome Blossoms in this case as they have a strong chance to make the final.
The Others: Hayfield, Houston, and Southland have an outside chance if someone can upset Blooming Prairie.
Most Likely First Round Upset (By Seed): #9 Randolph over #8 Mabel-Canton. Even though Mabel-Canton beat Randolph just over a week ago, Randolph is still given nearly a 90% chance to move on to the quarterfinals.
1AA
Seed | Team | FINAL Bracketology |
1 | Rochester Lourdes | 1 |
2 | Lake City | 2 |
3 | Goodhue | 3 |
4 | Winona Cotter | 5 |
5 | Stewartville | 4 |
6 | Zumbrota-Mazeppa | 6 |
7 | Dover-Eyota | 7 |
8 | Plainview-Elgin-Millville | 8 |
9 | Triton | 9 |
10 | St. Charles | 10 |
11 | Chatfield | 13 |
12 | Kenyon-Wanamingo | 12 |
13 | La Crescent | 14 |
14 | Lewiston-Altura | 17 |
15 | Pine Island | 11 |
16 | Cannon Falls | 15 |
17 | Caledonia | 16 |
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rochester Lourdes | 100 | 99.96 | 97.65 | 85.81 | 59.74 | 1.7 |
2 | Lake City | 100 | 98.17 | 93.40 | 51.14 | 19.58 | 5.1 |
3 | Goodhue | 100 | 99.96 | 93.35 | 47.69 | 17.11 | 5.8 |
5 | Stewartville | 100 | 98.86 | 63.69 | 10.11 | 2.82 | 35 |
4 | Winona Cotter | 100 | 99.23 | 36.26 | 3.70 | 0.67 | 149 |
6 | Zumbrota-Mazeppa | 100 | 92.96 | 6.61 | 0.73 | 0.04 | 2337 |
9 | Triton | 100 | 51.50 | 1.63 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 4734 |
7 | Dover-Eyota | 100 | 94.69 | 5.95 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 5792 |
8 | Plainview-Elgin-Millville | 100 | 48.50 | 0.71 | 0.08 | <0.01 | 32521 |
15 | Pine Island | 100 | 1.83 | 0.61 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 215598 |
11 | Chatfield | 100 | 7.04 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 26209861 |
12 | Kenyon-Wanamingo | 100 | 1.14 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 69774905 |
10 | St. Charles | 100 | 5.31 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 137751770 |
16 | Cannon Falls | 68.16 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1907444714 |
13 | La Crescent | 100 | 0.77 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 4173545768 |
14 | Lewiston-Altura | 100 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 32981245817 |
17 | Caledonia | 31.84 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 34025277578 |
The Favorite: Rochester Lourdes is the top team in all of class AA, so it is no surprise they are the favorite. I am a little surprised at how heavy of a favorite they are.
The #1 Contender: Lake City edges out Goodhue for this spot, with just under a 20% chance to win the section.
The Others: Goodhue and Stewartville are the only ones that the computer gives a decent chance to. Stewartville will most certainly earn it if they are going to win the section as they will most likely need to beat three top four seeds.
Most Likely First Round Upset (By Seed): #9 Triton over #8 Plainview-Elgin-Millville. The computer picks Triton in a coin flip game, as Triton’s win probability is 51.5%.
Remaining Unbeatens (vs. MN teams only)
- Marshall: 79.85% chance to finish the regular season unbeaten
- Pelican Rapids: 82.66%
- Hopkins: 85.32%
- Hills-Beaver Creek: 100%
Biggest Upset
This section will feature the most unlikely winners. The ratings at the time of the game are used to determine who goes here.
Randolph 73, Pine Island 69 (0.42% chance of upset)
The Rockets went to Pine Island and knocked off the Panthers. Being in a league as difficult as the HVL usually has teams like Pine Island prepared for games like this, but Randolph was the better team that night.
Honorable Mention: Bloomington Kennedy 57, Benilde-St. Margaret’s 39 (2.05%), Red Lake 76, Roseau 74 (2.51%)
Biggest Gainers
This section will be reserved for the teams that move up the rankings the most.
A – Stephen-Argyle (previously Class A #26, currently #17)
- Wins – A #62 Goodridge-Grygla (66-49), A #43 Fosston (60-45), A #32 Northern Freeze (60-49)
- Losses – none
AA – Plainview-Elgin-Millville (previously Class AA #60, currently #46)
- Wins – AA #82 St. Charles (65-47)
- Losses – AA #44 Dover-Eyota (41-34), AA #14 Stewartville (55-44)
AAA – Fridley (previously Class AAA #44, currently #41)
- Wins – AAA #57 Columbia Heights (78-45)
- Losses – AAA #1 DeLaSalle (75-38)
AAAA – Buffalo (previously Class AAAA #25, currently #20)
- Wins – none
- Losses – AAAA #7 Minnetonka (63-56), AAAA #6 Eden Prairie (67-46), AAAA #7 Minnetonka (65-48)
Biggest Fallers
This section will include the teams that fell down the rankings the most.
A – Houston (previously Class A #49, currently #57)
- Wins – A #98 Alden-Conger/Glenville-Emmons (79-32), A #125 Schaeffer Academy (51-48)
- Losses – A #68 Kingsland (64-52)
AA – Norwood Young America (previously Class AA #33, currently #42)
- Wins – AA #53 Tri-City United (62-50)
- Losses – AA #24 Holy Family (67-43), AA #64 Sibley East (49-37), AA #39 Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial (63-49)
AAA –Benilde-St. Margaret’s (previously Class AAA #24, currently #28)
- Wins – none
- Losses – AAA #52 Bloomington Kennedy (57-39), AAAA #25 Chanhassen (99-63)
AAAA –Blaine (previously Class AAAA #23, currently #26)
- Wins – none
- Losses – AAAA #8 Park Center (83-48), AAAA #29 Andover (67-56)
Highest Scoring Games
Offense continues to increase as the season goes on, with the total this week at 108.4 points per game. The season average increases to 106.8 points per game. Red Lake makes a double appearance on the list this week.
- Red Lake 99, Cass Lake-Bena 85
- Lakeville North 99, Burnsville 82
- Springfield 89, Minnesota Valley Lutheran 88
- Park Center 92, Totino-Grace 71
- Chanhassen 99, Benilde-St. Margaret’s 63
- Red Lake 98, Clearbrook-Gonvick 64
- St. Paul Como Park 96, St. Paul Central 66
Predictions
Each week I will list the computer predictions for some of the more interesting games around the state. These predictions may change as the week goes on due to the outcomes of previous games. All games that I am aware of each day are predicted on Twitter (@MNBBRatings).
Monday
- Annandale @ Rockford (Rockford 61-56)
- Central MN Christian @ Minneota – Camden Championship (Minneota 71-45)
Tuesday
- Waconia @ Hutchinson (Hutchinson 74-69)
- Park Center @ Maple Grove (Park Center 67-63)
- Shakopee @ Lakeville North (Lakeville North 67-64)
- Waseca @ Marshall – Big South Championship (Marshall 54-44)
Thursday
- Providence Academy @ Royalton (Royalton 57-46)
- Worthington @ St. Peter (St. Peter 65-54)
Friday
- Michael-Albertville @ Eden Prairie (St. Michael-Albertville 78-75)
- New Prague @ Waconia (New Prague 73-70)
- Burnsville @ Prior Lake (Prior Lake 75-74)
- Lakeville North @ Rosemount (Rosemount 65-59)
Saturday
- Cherry @ Heritage Christian (Cherry 51-50)