Section Preview By the Numbers: 2A, 3A, 2AA, 3AA
As section play gets underway, What follows will be what the numbers say about who will be moving on to each round, and eventually to the State Tournament. Section 1A and 1AA have already begun and were previewed in last…
Access all of Prep Girls Hoops
Continue reading this article and more.
Continue ReadingAs section play gets underway, What follows will be what the numbers say about who will be moving on to each round, and eventually to the State Tournament. Section 1A and 1AA have already begun and were previewed in last week’s By the Numbers column.
Section 2A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Waterville-Elysian-Morristown | 100 | 99.99 | 99.24 | 93.35 | 68.91 | 1.5 |
N4 | BOLD | 100 | 96.25 | 64.75 | 54.05 | 20.98 | 4.8 |
N1 | Sleepy Eye St. Mary's | 100 | 99.88 | 34.83 | 24.5 | 6.01 | 17 |
N3 | Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart | 100 | 98.53 | 48.61 | 10.78 | 1.43 | 70 |
S2 | Springfield | 100 | 98.78 | 77.74 | 6.04 | 1.38 | 73 |
N2 | Central MN Christian | 100 | 99.9 | 51.37 | 10.57 | 1.24 | 81 |
S3 | St. Clair | 100 | 92.01 | 21.79 | 0.46 | 0.04 | 2645 |
N5 | Sleepy Eye | 100 | 3.75 | 0.42 | 0.1 | <0.01 | 23099 |
S4 | Mountain Lake-Comfrey | 100 | 56.45 | 0.43 | 0.08 | <0.01 | 28422 |
S5 | Martin County West | 100 | 43.55 | 0.33 | 0.06 | <0.01 | 32892 |
S6 | Truman/Martin Luther/GHEC | 100 | 7.99 | 0.38 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 6488488 |
S7 | Nicollet/Loyola | 100 | 1.22 | 0.09 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 164442835 |
N6 | Renville County West | 100 | 1.47 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 632033444 |
N9 | New Ulm Cathedral | 38.87 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 316044542394 |
N8 | Cedar Mountain | 61.13 | 0.07 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 351383843532 |
S8 | United South Central | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 477335228625 |
N7 | Cleveland | 100 | 0.1 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1595866977619 |
The Favorite
WEM is the favorite here with about a two-thirds chance to represent the section at state. Those are some fairly strong odds, but they are helped by being on the perceived easier side of the bracket.
The #1 Contender
BOLD is the computer’s favorite to represent the North half of the bracket and is given a 1 in 5 chance to go to state. Intriguing considering they are the 4-seed and face a difficult path the the title.
The Others
Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s, Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart, Springfield, and Central MN Christian can all throw a wrench in the computer’s plan. This is a very balanced section and it shows with this many teams given at least a 1% chance to win.
The Upset
S#5 Martin County West over S#4 Mountain Lake-Comfrey. The computer predicts a 43% chance of an upset.
Section 3A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N1 | Minneota | 100 | 99.74 | 98.13 | 95.57 | 86.34 | 1.2 |
S1 | Hills-Beaver Creek | 100 | 99.94 | 97.13 | 54.93 | 6.76 | 15 |
S2 | Southwest MN Christian | 100 | 99.86 | 91.36 | 44.22 | 5.91 | 17 |
N3 | Lac qui Parle Valley | 100 | 86.74 | 48.93 | 1.93 | 0.46 | 216 |
N2 | Lakeview | 100 | 77.38 | 42.26 | 1.57 | 0.37 | 273 |
N4 | Yellow Medicine East | 100 | 56.06 | 1.25 | 0.58 | 0.11 | 902 |
N5 | Canby | 100 | 43.94 | 0.58 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 2938 |
S3 | Adrian-Ellsworth | 100 | 97.22 | 8.62 | 0.64 | 0.01 | 10430 |
N7 | Russell-Tyler-Ruthton | 100 | 22.62 | 6.48 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 13137 |
S4 | Red Rock Central | 100 | 61.43 | 1.95 | 0.16 | <0.01 | 72475 |
N6 | Wabasso | 100 | 13.26 | 2.33 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 115213 |
S5 | Murray County Central | 100 | 38.57 | 0.91 | 0.05 | <0.01 | 274734 |
N8 | MACCRAY | 96.85 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 422201 |
S6 | Heron Lake-Okabena/Fulda | 100 | 2.78 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 7624955732 |
S8 | Edgerton | 100 | 0.06 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 44315584758 |
S7 | Westbrook-Walnut Grove | 100 | 0.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 223550720894 |
N9 | Dawson-Boyd | 3.15 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2303935183878 |
The Favorite
Minneota is about as heavy of a favorite as there is. Their only loss came at the hands of a highly rated class AA team in Goodhue. If the Vikings aren’t in Minneapolis, there may be some jaws that need to be picked up off the floor.
The #1 Contender
Hills-Beaver Creek just completed its second consecutive undefeated regular season (vs. MN teams only). Last year they faltered in the sub-section finals. This year, the computer gives them just better than a 50/50 chance to redeem themselves.
The Others
Southwest MN Christian is the only other threat. Between the top three teams, they have a collective 99% chance to go to state, leaving just 1% for the remaining 14 teams.
The Upset
N#5 Canby over N#4 Yellow Medicine East. The computer predicts a 44% chance of an upset.
Section 2AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Waseca | 100 | 99.9997 | 97.25 | 89.24 | 52.36 | 1.9 |
N2 | Jordan | 100 | 95.79 | 82.20 | 42.43 | 18.38 | 5.4 |
N1 | Belle Plaine | 100 | 88.15 | 77.41 | 42.95 | 18.22 | 5.5 |
S2 | Medford | 100 | 99.14 | 53.56 | 5.40 | 0.87 | 116 |
S3 | Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial | 100 | 91.28 | 45.38 | 4.49 | 0.71 | 142 |
N3 | Glencoe-Silver Lake | 100 | 69.87 | 12.87 | 2.68 | 0.37 | 268 |
N5 | Norwood-Young America | 100 | 83.17 | 12.37 | 2.49 | 0.3 | 336 |
S4 | Fairmont | 100 | 91.15 | 2.72 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 1435 |
N6 | Tri-City United | 100 | 30.13 | 3.74 | 0.54 | 0.05 | 2007 |
N7 | Sibley East | 100 | 4.21 | 1.18 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 16963 |
N8 | LeSueur-Henderson | 91.28 | 3.13 | 0.92 | 0.07 | <0.01 | 32400 |
N4 | Minnesota Valley Lutheran | 100 | 16.83 | 0.59 | 0.03 | <0.01 | 145998 |
S6 | NRHEG | 100 | 8.72 | 1.04 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 270624 |
S5 | Maple River | 100 | 8.85 | 0.09 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 971105 |
N9 | Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop | 8.72 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1558538487 |
S7 | Blue Earth | 100 | 0.86 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2593729200 |
S8 | Janesville-Waldorf-Pemberton | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1391984358224870 |
The Favorite
Waseca drops down to class AA and is now a favorite to go to state, something they haven’t done since 2017.
The #1 Contender
Jordan slips past Belle Plaine to grab the title of #1 contender by the slimmest of margins, although the numbers are nearly identical.
The Others
Belle Plaine is the other option here, and with over an 18% chance to win the section, they are an impressive “other”. They carried a very strong Strength of Record rating all season and look to show that it was not a fluke.
The Upset
N#5 Norwood-Young America over N#4 Minnesota Valley Lutheran. The computer predicts an 83% chance of an upset.
Section 3AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N1 | New London-Spicer | 100 | 99.991 | 96.42 | 78.52 | 75.95 | 1.3 |
N2 | Eden Valley-Watkins | 100 | 99.56 | 61.76 | 13.97 | 12.55 | 8 |
N3 | Morris/Chokio-Alberta | 100 | 84.81 | 35.96 | 6.78 | 5.81 | 17 |
S2 | Windom | 100 | 80.67 | 48.35 | 29.06 | 2.15 | 47 |
S1 | Luverne | 100 | 91.21 | 56.85 | 28.14 | 1.35 | 74 |
S5 | Jackson County Central | 100 | 73.16 | 35.81 | 16.18 | 0.81 | 124 |
S3 | Redwood Valley | 100 | 66.41 | 31.88 | 17.08 | 0.72 | 139 |
N5 | Minnewaska | 100 | 63.74 | 2.95 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 284 |
S6 | Pipestone | 100 | 33.59 | 13.73 | 6.37 | 0.16 | 607 |
N6 | Litchfield | 100 | 15.19 | 2.26 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 1159 |
S7 | Montevideo | 100 | 19.33 | 6.03 | 2.07 | 0.03 | 3209 |
N4 | Benson | 100 | 36.26 | 0.63 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 4323 |
S4 | Tracy-Milroy-Balaton | 100 | 26.84 | 5.37 | 0.87 | 0.01 | 18689 |
S8 | St. James | 100 | 8.79 | 1.97 | 0.24 | <0.01 | 93704 |
N7 | Paynesville | 100 | 0.44 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 36066413 |
N8 | Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City | 100 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 22859960697 |
The Favorite
New London-Spicer has been nothing short of a machine this season. Their lone loss came on the road at Sauk Centre, by a single basket.
The #1 Contender
Eden Valley-Watkins is the main challenger and the only other team with a greater than 10% chance to advance.
The Others
Morris/Chokio-Alberta, Windom, and Luverne also boast a greater than 1% chance to head to state. Windom and Luverne have the advantage of playing in the south bracket, although the spread from 1-8 in the south is as thin as it gets.
The Upset
S#5 Jackson County Central over S#4 Tracy-Milroy-Balaton. The computer predicts an 73% chance of an upset.