Section Preview By the Numbers: 5A, 6A, 8A, and 8AA
As section play gets underway, what follows will be what the numbers say about who will be moving on to each round, and eventually to the State Tournament. This round focuses on four sections that begin with play-in games tonight.…
Access all of Prep Girls Hoops
Continue reading this article and more.
Continue ReadingAs section play gets underway, what follows will be what the numbers say about who will be moving on to each round, and eventually to the State Tournament. This round focuses on four sections that begin with play-in games tonight.
Section 5A
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W2 | Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa | 100 | 99.68 | 87.40 | 55.32 | 55 | 1.8 |
W1 | Walker-Hackensack-Akeley | 100 | 99.84 | 89.77 | 40.60 | 40.09 | 2.5 |
W3 | Pine River-Backus | 100 | 97.28 | 12.56 | 3.05 | 2.89 | 35 |
E5 | Upsala | 100 | 88 | 58.99 | 50.19 | 0.86 | 116 |
W4 | Sebeka | 100 | 72.96 | 8.79 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 117 |
E1 | East Central | 100 | 89.73 | 37.48 | 29.31 | 0.2 | 510 |
W5 | Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg | 100 | 27.04 | 1.44 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1670 |
E6 | Barnum | 100 | 53.25 | 36.92 | 9.16 | 0.03 | 3307 |
E2 | Ogilvie | 100 | 81.09 | 32.39 | 5.14 | 0.01 | 8961 |
E3 | Braham | 100 | 46.75 | 27.45 | 4.64 | 0.01 | 11541 |
E8 | Swanville | 94.56 | 10.23 | 1.61 | 0.68 | <0.01 | 112222 |
E4 | Onamia | 100 | 12 | 1.92 | 0.72 | <0.01 | 135693 |
W7 | Browerville/Eagle Valley | 99.9997 | 0.32 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 357331 |
W6 | Verndale | 100 | 2.72 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 990697 |
E7 | Hinckley-Finlayson | 98.65 | 18.9 | 3.25 | 0.16 | <0.01 | 2232691 |
W8 | Nevis | 88.33 | 0.16 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 27850279 |
E9 | Isle | 5.44 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 28527302826 |
W9 | Bertha-Hewitt | 11.67 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1000924274189 |
E10 | McGregor | 1.35 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1543171237916060 |
W10 | Laporte | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
BBE is the favorite in this West heavy section. The Jaguars have been streaking since starting the season and nine of their ten losses have come to AA teams.
The #1 Contender
Walker-Hackensack-Akeley is the top threat to BBE and have a solid 24-2 record. While there is a big difference in the records, W-H-A has just the 79th rated schedule in class A, while BBE’s is rated 2nd.
The Others
Pine River-Backus is the only other team with greater than 1% chance to go to the state tournament. Interestingly enough, the 5-seed Upsala has the best chance of all teams from the East to advance.
The Upset
E#5 Upsala over E#4 Onamia. The computer predicts an 88% chance of an upset.
Section 6A
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N1 | Henning | 100 | 99.36 | 93.30 | 87.08 | 82.31 | 1.2 |
S1 | West Central | 100 | 98.89 | 82.25 | 61.6 | 8.03 | 12 |
N2 | Underwood | 100 | 93.79 | 61.07 | 6.92 | 4.43 | 23 |
N3 | Park Christian | 100 | 72.92 | 30.14 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 79 |
N4 | Ada-Borup | 100 | 62.42 | 4.44 | 2.19 | 1.27 | 79 |
S3 | Parkers Prairie | 100 | 66.73 | 41.08 | 14.54 | 0.9 | 111 |
S2 | Hancock | 100 | 87.52 | 39.34 | 11.51 | 0.55 | 181 |
N5 | New York Mills | 100 | 37.58 | 2.18 | 1 | 0.55 | 182 |
S6 | Wheaton/Herman-Norcross | 100 | 33.27 | 17.75 | 5.17 | 0.25 | 396 |
S4 | Brandon/Evansville | 100 | 75.72 | 15.15 | 6.37 | 0.24 | 409 |
N6 | Lake Park-Audubon | 100 | 27.08 | 7.72 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 593 |
S5 | Clinton-Graceville-Beardsley | 100 | 24.28 | 2.52 | 0.65 | 0.01 | 9211 |
N7 | Mahnomen/Waubun | 95.79 | 6.2 | 1.08 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 29399 |
S7 | Battle Lake | 100 | 12.48 | 1.83 | 0.16 | <0.01 | 65208 |
N9 | NCE/U-H | 47.43 | 0.31 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 107482 |
N8 | Rothsay | 52.57 | 0.33 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 155995 |
S8 | Ashby | 96.67 | 1.11 | 0.08 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 8448310 |
N10 | Hillcrest Lutheran | 4.20 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 70513824519 |
S9 | Ortonville | 3.33 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 282483341266387 |
The Favorite
Henning has been the head of the section all season long, finishing with a 24-2 record. They won’t necessarily walk through to Minneapolis, but 82% is about as close as it gets.
The #1 Contender
West Central is next as the 1-seed out of the South bracket. The South doesn’t rate quite as strong as the north, which probably explains why they take this spot over Underwood.
The Others
Underwood, Park Christian, and Ada-Borup are the other main contenders in 6A, but don’t be surprised if one of them is upset early on, as the next tier of teams is not that far away from these three.
The Upset
N#5 New York Mills over N#4 Ada-Borup. The computer predicts a 38% chance of an upset.
Section 8A
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W1 | Warren-Alvarado-Oslo | 100 | 76.89 | 47.39 | 35.62 | 30.59 | 3.3 |
W4 | Badger/Greenbush-Middle River | 100 | 80.64 | 38.14 | 26 | 21.03 | 4.8 |
E2 | Red Lake | 100 | 98.7 | 62.1 | 42.98 | 12.12 | 8.3 |
W3 | Sacred Heart | 100 | 57.01 | 37.03 | 12.55 | 9.06 | 11 |
W6 | Stephen-Argyle | 100 | 42.99 | 28.53 | 10.27 | 7.51 | 13 |
E1 | Fosston | 100 | 95.94 | 73.22 | 29.4 | 4.61 | 22 |
E3 | Cass Lake-Bena | 100 | 87.4 | 36.18 | 21.85 | 4.46 | 22 |
W8 | Kittson County Central | 96.57 | 23.06 | 10.18 | 5.92 | 4.42 | 23 |
W2 | Red Lake County Central | 100 | 67.2 | 25.07 | 6.26 | 3.87 | 26 |
W5 | Red Lake Falls | 100 | 19.36 | 4.29 | 1.73 | 1.03 | 97 |
W7 | Northern Freeze | 99.16 | 32.79 | 9.37 | 1.65 | 0.92 | 108 |
E4 | Clearbrook-Gonvick | 100 | 71.94 | 20.9 | 4.65 | 0.34 | 297 |
E5 | Blackduck | 100 | 28.06 | 4.98 | 0.67 | 0.02 | 4216 |
E6 | Goodridge/Grygla | 100 | 12.6 | 1.67 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 6509 |
E9 | Win-E-Mac | 73.79 | 3.73 | 0.87 | 0.06 | <0.01 | 110433 |
W9 | Fertile-Beltrami | 3.43 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2877011 |
E7 | Lake of the Woods | 100 | 1.30 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 14472142 |
E8 | Kelliher/Northome | 26.21 | 0.33 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 51712880 |
W10 | Climax/Fisher | 0.84 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 8863650923 |
The Favorite
Warren-Alvarado-Oslo is the most underwhelming favorite so far, with “just” a 31% chance to advance to the state tournament. This is not a knock on the Ponies but a salute to the incredible depth this section has, especially on the West half of the bracket.
The #1 Contender
Badger/Greenbush-Middle River fills the role of the #1 contender in this section as the 4-seed in the West. The winner between BGMR and WAO will have roughly a 60% chance to go to state.
The Others
Red Lake, Sacred Heart, Stephen-Argyle, Fosston, Cass Lake-Bena, Kittson County Central, Red Lake County Central, and Red Lake Falls all boast at least a 1% chance to win the section. Add to that Northern Freeze with a 0.9% chance to win the section and you have as close to a toss up and you can get. Eight teams from the West have at least a 0.9% chance, that is balance!
The Upset
W#6 Stephen-Argyle over W#3 Sacred Heart. The computer predicts a 43% chance of an upset.
Section 8AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Fergus Falls | 100 | 99.01 | 95.16 | 67.15 | 44.01 | 2.3 |
S2 | Pelican Rapids | 100 | 95.28 | 57.81 | 39.79 | 19.12 | 5.2 |
N2 | Roseau | 100 | 98.71 | 69.9 | 26.22 | 12.82 | 7.8 |
N1 | Hawley | 100 | 99.9999998 | 81 | 32.44 | 11.73 | 8.5 |
N3 | Crookston | 100 | 94.68 | 41.23 | 25.12 | 10.22 | 9.8 |
S3 | Perham | 100 | 72.68 | 24.15 | 5.24 | 1.56 | 64 |
S5 | Frazee | 100 | 43.47 | 8.87 | 1.26 | 0.18 | 560 |
S4 | Menahga | 100 | 56.53 | 10.13 | 1.23 | 0.15 | 660 |
S6 | Breckenridge | 100 | 27.32 | 5.9 | 0.79 | 0.14 | 709 |
N5 | Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton | 100 | 78.37 | 4.21 | 0.56 | 0.05 | 2107 |
S7 | Barnesville | 100 | 4.72 | 0.61 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 9845 |
N6 | East Grand Forks | 100 | 5.32 | 0.34 | 0.05 | <0.01 | 30060 |
S8 | Wadena-Deer Creek | 92.98 | 0.98 | 0.4 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 140925 |
N4 | Park Rapids | 100 | 21.63 | 0.22 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 1174980 |
N7 | Thief River Falls | 100 | 1.29 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 11862694 |
S9 | Staples-Motley | 7.02 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2195501385 |
N8 | Warroad | 64.82 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
N9 | Bagley | 35.18 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Fergus Falls is the favorite with a 44% chance to advance to state. Seems like a big number, but remember that means that they are more likely to not make it.
The #1 Contender
The as of this moment undefeated Pelican Rapids Vikings are the biggest challenger. Their record will get put to the test in this section.
The Others
Roseau, Hawley, Crookston, and Perham round out the other teams that have a significant chance to move on. This section is deep so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few upsets along the way.
The Upset
N#5 Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton over N#4 Park Rapids. The computer predicts a 78% chance of an upset.