Section Previews By the Numbers: 4A, 7A, 4AA, 5AA, 6AA, and 7AA
The remainder of the A and AA sections are previewed below. They begin anywhere from Monday through Thursday. Section 4A SeedR16QtrsSemisFinalsChamp1 in ??? 1Mayer Lutheran10010099.99999393.0969.291.44 2Heritage Christian10010099.9999694.9423.664.23 3Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity10010099.999995.060.14701.38 4Legacy Christian10010090.98<0.01<0.01406645039948.48 9Hope Academy10098.01<0.01<0.01<0.0129758302706436 5United Christian Academy10093.092.11<0.01<0.01350777296465327 7West Lutheran10093.44<0.01<0.01<0.0129930662291885500 8Liberty…
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Continue ReadingThe remainder of the A and AA sections are previewed below. They begin anywhere from Monday through Thursday.
Section 4A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mayer Lutheran | 100 | 100 | 99.999993 | 93.09 | 69.29 | 1.44 |
2 | Heritage Christian | 100 | 100 | 99.99996 | 94.94 | 23.66 | 4.23 |
3 | Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity | 100 | 100 | 99.99999 | 5.06 | 0.14 | 701.38 |
4 | Legacy Christian | 100 | 100 | 90.98 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 406645039948.48 |
9 | Hope Academy | 100 | 98.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 29758302706436 |
5 | United Christian Academy | 100 | 93.09 | 2.11 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 350777296465327 |
7 | West Lutheran | 100 | 93.44 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 29930662291885500 |
8 | Liberty Classical | 100 | 1.99 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1634621280361779968 |
13 | Trinity School | 99.9995 | 6.91 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2.8103079024187E+19 |
10 | PACT | 100 | 6.56 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 5.3716614550765E+21 |
6 | Avail Academy | 100 | 99.62 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1.5579870274464E+24 |
11 | Community of Peace | 72.9 | 0.07 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | -2.2876695219287E+19 |
14 | High School for the Recording Arts | 27.10 | 0.3 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 6.7129059061602E+19 |
12 | International School | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | -3.9234660002406E+34 |
15 | Lincoln International | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Mayer Lutheran is the favorite. The computer gets thrown off in this section due to the wide discrepancy of quality. Mayer Lutheran is listed with about a 69% chance but in reality I would guess it is slightly higher than 70%.
The #1 Contender
Heritage Christian is the 2-seed and the other major contender. The Eagles lost a closely contested contest earlier this year and are most certainly looking forward to a rematch.
The Others
Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity is the other team with a chance, albeit very small. They have a reasonable chance to reach the finals, but they will have a very difficult time pulling off upsets against both the top teams.
The Upset
#13 Trinity School over #5 United Christian Academy. Provided Trinity gets past Eagle Ridge Academy (International School above), the computer predicts a 7% chance of an upset.
Section 7A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cromwell-Wright | 100 | 100 | 99.9994 | 99.995 | 69.46 | 1.4 |
2 | Mountain Iron-Buhl | 100 | 100 | 99.9991 | 80.69 | 28.41 | 3.5 |
3 | Cherry | 100 | 99.9999999 | 99.95 | 19.31481747689 | 2.14 | 47 |
4 | Ely | 100 | 99.16 | 88.08 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 62035523 |
9 | Floodwood | 100 | 68.13 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 6823766496 |
5 | Chisholm | 100 | 66.62 | 8.46 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 104037561290 |
8 | South Ridge | 100 | 31.87 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 194723345153 |
12 | North Woods | 100 | 33.38 | 3.35 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 489612095894 |
11 | Deer River | 100 | 45.26 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 773399341181 |
6 | Littlefork-Big Falls | 100 | 54.74 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1266453844050 |
7 | Cook County | 100 | 71.12 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 141320816389936 |
10 | Carlton | 100 | 28.88 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 450692254141506 |
13 | Bigfork | 100 | 0.84 | 0.11 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 16987478604883500 |
14 | Hill City/Northland | 99.25 | 1.4 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
16 | Nashwauk-Keewatin | 99.52 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
17 | Northeast Range | 0.48 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
18 | Wrenshall | 54.86 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
15 | Silver Bay | 45.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
19 | Fond du Lac Ojibwe | 0.75 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Cromwell-Wright is the top ranked team in all of Class A, and is obviously the favorite in the section. A trip to the finals is essentially a lock, where they will face a much more challenging task.
The #1 Contender
Mountain Iron-Buhl is the second ranked team in all of Class A, but will need to pull off an upset if they want to extend their streak of consecutive state tournament trips to ten.
The Others
Cherry would be the favorite in a few other sections, but in this section, they are relegated to just over a 2% chance. Upsetting both MIB and Cromwell-Wright would make them extremely deserving of a berth.
The Upset
#9 Floodwood over #8 South Ridge. The computer predicts a 68% chance of an upset.
Section 4AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Minnehaha Academy | 100 | 100 | 99.9997 | 99.98 | 81.02 | 1.2 |
3 | Concordia Academy | 100 | 100 | 99.996 | 99.28 | 18.98 | 5.3 |
2 | St. Paul Humboldt | 100 | 100 | 95.993 | 0.72 | <0.01 | 153320 |
5 | New Life Academy | 100 | 99.9995 | 56.81 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 730960 |
4 | Cristo Rey Jesuit | 100 | 100 | 43.19 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 13797546 |
9 | St. Agnes | 100 | 87.85 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2863847595 |
7 | Mounds Park | 100 | 99.25 | 4.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2954277246 |
11 | St. Croix Prep | 100 | 57.42 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 31040704134 |
6 | St. Paul Academy | 100 | 42.58 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 845697065078 |
8 | North Lakes | 100 | 12.15 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3215325645644600 |
10 | Twin Cities Academy | 99.9998 | 0.75 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3331268832598750208 |
12 | Nova Classical | 63.62 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
13 | St. Paul Johnson | 36.38 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
15 | St. Paul Washington | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
14 | Hiawatha Collegiate | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Minnehaha Academy is once again the favorite in 4AA. They are a very heavy favorite as the computer does not see many challengers to the RedHawks.
The #1 Contender
Concordia Academy, by percent, is really the only contender. Between Minnehaha and Concordia, they make up, rounded of course, 100% of the possibilities of teams to head to state.
The Others
None. St. Paul Humboldt has had a great season, but the computer does not see them as a threat to either Concordia or Minnehaha.
The Upset
#11 St. Croix Prep over #6 St. Paul Academy. Provided St. Croix Prep beats Hiawatha Collegiate, the computer predicts a 57% chance of an upset.
Section 5AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Providence Academy | 100 | 100 | 83.63 | 46.72 | 30.58 | 3.3 |
5 | Holy Family | 100 | 96.11 | 92.35 | 48.72 | 30.08 | 3.3 |
2 | Watertown-Mayer | 100 | 97.89 | 95.02 | 65.4 | 28.71 | 3.5 |
3 | Rockford | 100 | 99.99995 | 53.18 | 19 | 5.46 | 18 |
6 | Annandale | 100 | 99.98 | 46.82 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 26 |
9 | Southwest Christian | 100 | 46.43 | 8.28 | 2.25 | 0.69 | 144 |
8 | Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted | 100 | 53.57 | 8.09 | 1.97 | 0.53 | 187 |
12 | Maple Lake | 100 | 3.89 | 2.66 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 8547 |
10 | Maranatha Christian | 100 | 74.48 | 3.4 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 9432 |
4 | Blake | 100 | 99.9 | 4.99 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 9702 |
15 | Dassel-Cokato | 100 | 2.11 | 1.3 | 0.1 | <0.01 | 30965 |
7 | Minneapolis North | 100 | 25.52 | 0.27 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 2103672 |
11 | Breck | 100 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 243017766782444 |
13 | Brooklyn Center | 100 | 0.1 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 57872940145363200 |
14 | Minneapolis Henry | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
16 | Metro Schools College Prep | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Providence Academy received the 1-seed and is the slightest of favorites over a pair of contenders.
The #1 Contender
Holy Family is hoping their difficult schedule has prepared them for the postseason. They have the second best chance in the section despite being the 5-seed.
The Others
Watertown-Mayer falls just behind the near co-favorites, while Rockford and Annandale have a chance, albeit much smaller than the other three.
The Upset
#10 Maranatha Christian over #7 Minneapolis North. The computer predicts a 74% chance of an upset.
Section 6AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Sauk Centre | 100 | 99.995 | 98.62 | 70.72 | 47.79 | 2.1 |
1 | Albany | 100 | 99.93 | 94.87 | 66.73 | 29.42 | 3.4 |
3 | Pine City | 100 | 99.998 | 91.04 | 28.79 | 13.8 | 7.2 |
4 | Royalton | 100 | 99.98 | 68.78 | 25.52 | 7.6 | 13.2 |
5 | Holdingford | 100 | 98.04 | 31.19 | 7.08 | 1.21 | 82.7 |
6 | Melrose | 100 | 68.4 | 6.6 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 3567 |
8 | Milaca | 100 | 59.06 | 3.02 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 5821 |
9 | Foley | 100 | 40.94 | 2.05 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 8955 |
11 | St. Cloud Cathedral | 100 | 31.6 | 2.37 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 15865 |
7 | Pierz | 100 | 97.6 | 1.38 | 0.09 | <0.01 | 32392 |
12 | Osakis | 100 | 1.96 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 45151428 |
16 | Kimball | 100 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 54059922227 |
10 | Spectrum | 100 | 2.4 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 90327858132 |
15 | Long Prairie-Grey Eagle | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3940635206913 |
13 | Mora | 100 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 25912725348825 |
14 | Rush City | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 127775180520494000 |
The Favorite
Sauk Centre received the 2-seed due to a two-point, last second loss at Albany towards the end of the season. The computer still sees the Mainstreeters as the favorites, but not by much.
The #1 Contender
Albany is the top contender to Sauk Centre in the section, but the Huskies have proven they can beat the favorites, so why not again?
The Others
Pine City, Royalton, and Holdingford are the others who could make some noise. Pine City lost only two games all year, one to a top AAA team in Hutchinson and the other a two-point loss to Sauk Centre. The other two teams come out of the Central Minnesota Conference and have competed at a high level all season.
The Upset
#9 Foley over #8 Milaca. The computer predicts a 41% chance of an upset.
Section 7AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2, 1 | Proctor | 100 | 100 | 93.08 | 90.8 | 54.87 | 1.8 |
2, 2 | Duluth Marshall | 100 | 99.95 | 80.13 | 73.84 | 39.4 | 2.5 |
2, 3 | Mesabi East | 100 | 99.55 | 19.86 | 14.74 | 3.31 | 30 |
1, 1 | Esko | 100 | 100 | 97.15 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 83 |
2, 4 | Virginia | 100 | 99.86 | 6.92 | 5.12 | 0.87 | 115 |
1, 2 | Pequot Lakes | 100 | 99.65 | 78 | 3.72 | 0.33 | 300 |
1, 3 | Crosby-Ironton | 100 | 99.2 | 21.99 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 8578 |
1, 5 | Pillager | 100 | 70.87 | 2.44 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 718088 |
1, 4 | Moose Lake-Willow River | 100 | 29.13 | 0.41 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 19574476 |
2, 6 | Eveleth-Gilbert | 100 | 0.45 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 877265401 |
2, 7 | International Falls | 100 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 45119634206 |
1, 7 | Aitkin | 100 | 0.35 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 74716364829 |
2, 5 | Greenway | 100 | 0.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2907402937104 |
1, 6 | Two Harbors | 100 | 0.8 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 8048016007265 |
The Favorite
Proctor takes the top spot in 7AA and is given a little better than a coin flip’s chance to win it all. They have beaten all of their top contenders already this season.
The #1 Contender
Duluth Marshall is the secondary favorite with a nearly 40% chance to win the section. Thankfully, the Hilltoppers are on the opposite side of the bracket from the Rails, and there is roughly a 65% chance those two teams appear in the championship against each other.
The Others
Mesabi East and Esko represent the other teams with the best opportunities. Both teams are on the same side of the bracket as Duluth Marshall.
The Upset
1-#5 Pillager over 1-#4 Moose Lake-Willow River. The computer predicts a 71% chance of an upset.