Section Previews By the Numbers: AAA
AAA sections begin play on Wednesday this week with the exception of 5AAA and 8AAA, which start Thursday. Section 1AAA SeedTeamSemisFinalsChamp1 in ??? 1Red Wing1008345.052.2 3Kasson-Mantorville99.2478.644.82.2 2Austin96.9121.35.9617 5Byron73.5915.584.0825 4Albert Lea26.411.420.11915 6Winona0.760.06<0.0173164 7Faribault3.090.05<0.0185232 The Favorite Red Wing takes the top spot…
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Continue ReadingAAA sections begin play on Wednesday this week with the exception of 5AAA and 8AAA, which start Thursday.
Section 1AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Red Wing | 100 | 83 | 45.05 | 2.2 | ||
3 | Kasson-Mantorville | 99.24 | 78.6 | 44.8 | 2.2 | ||
2 | Austin | 96.91 | 21.3 | 5.96 | 17 | ||
5 | Byron | 73.59 | 15.58 | 4.08 | 25 | ||
4 | Albert Lea | 26.41 | 1.42 | 0.11 | 915 | ||
6 | Winona | 0.76 | 0.06 | <0.01 | 73164 | ||
7 | Faribault | 3.09 | 0.05 | <0.01 | 85232 |
The Favorite
Red Wing takes the top spot over computer darling Kasson-Mantorville by a hair. The Wingers have had another strong regular season and look to take that momentum into the playoffs.
The #1 Contender
Kasson-Mantorville plays in the Hiawatha Valley League, which consists mostly of AA schools. Luckily for the KoMets, those schools give them a chance to compete with some of AA’s best. A close loss to Red Wing early in the season is most certainly on their mind.
The Others
Austin is definitely a threat and Byron could catch lightning in a bottle. The Packers have some impressive wins combined with some puzzling losses. They hope to put it together for three games and repeat as section champs.
The Upset
#5 Byron over #4 Albert Lea. The computer predicts a 74% chance of an upset.
Section 2AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marshall | 97.25 | 63.86 | 45.86 | 2.2 | ||
2 | Waconia | 96.96 | 79.33 | 30.39 | 3.3 | ||
4 | Hutchinson | 82.11 | 32.47 | 20.06 | 5 | ||
5 | St. Peter | 17.89 | 3.4 | 1.41 | 71 | ||
6 | Worthington | 45.53 | 10.12 | 1.25 | 80 | ||
3 | Mankato West | 54.47 | 9.9 | 0.96 | 104 | ||
8 | New Ulm | 2.75 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 2099 | ||
7 | Mankato East | 3.04 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 6420 |
The Favorite
Marshall finished the regular season undefeated, but now is when avoiding a loss matters most. The Tigers have already defeated every team in the section, but the quality of teams in this sections is so high they are only given a 46% chance to advance.
The #1 Contender
Waconia comes into section play as the 2-seed and is sporting the #1 strength of schedule in all of AAA. The Wildcats certainly challenged themselves this season, including a close loss at Marshall at the end of the year.
The Others
Hutchinson out of the 4-seed is the other major threat the computer sees to the favorite. Hutch lost the battle of the Tigers early in the season and earned a split with Waconia. St. Peter, Worthington, and Mankato West all have outside chances to survive the gauntlet that is 2AAA.
The Upset
#6 Worthington over #3 Mankato West. The computer predicts a 46% chance of an upset.
Section 3AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Simley | 99.999995 | 94.73 | 45.37 | 2.2 | ||
3 | St. Paul Como Park | 97.88 | 57.54 | 33.42 | 3 | ||
2 | St. Croix Lutheran | 99.53 | 42.35 | 20.89 | 4.8 | ||
4 | Henry Sibley | 99.35 | 5.27 | 0.32 | 310 | ||
6 | Visitation | 2.12 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 17007 | ||
7 | South St. Paul | 0.47 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 1606092 | ||
5 | St. Paul Highland Park | 0.65350973464667 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 693418091 | ||
8 | St. Paul Harding | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 4950859256772042 |
The Favorite
Simley hasn’t lost since before Christmas. According to the computer, they have about a 45% chance to continue that streak to the state tournament.
The #1 Contender
St. Paul Como Park had been rated in the top three of AAA for most of the season until the St. Paul City Conference hit and they were unable, or more likely unwilling, to win games by the astronomical amounts they were projected. They have played exactly one team rated better than #301 by the computer in the past month.
The Others
St. Croix Lutheran has a major upset of DeLaSalle on their record, but it will be much more challenging to get by both Como Park and Simley to reach the state tournament.
The Upset
#6 Visitation over #3 St. Paul Como Park. The computer predicts a 2% chance of an upset. I think the biggest upset of the year would be if there was an upset in the first round of 3AAA.
Section 4AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | DeLaSalle | 99.999996 | 88.06 | 83.36 | 1.2 | ||
4 | Totino-Grace | 88.4 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 12 | ||
2 | Hill-Murray | 99.4 | 75.22 | 7.18 | 14 | ||
3 | Mahtomedi | 74.64 | 20.44 | 0.92 | 108 | ||
5 | St. Anthony Village | 11.6 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 787 | ||
6 | Fridley | 25.36 | 4.3 | 0.11 | 918 | ||
7 | Columbia Heights | 0.6 | 0.03 | <0.01 | 2197050 | ||
8 | Minneapolis Edison | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 557152024796630 |
The Favorite
DeLaSalle is on a path to repeat as state champions, but the 1-seed section 4AAA was upset by Totino-Grace last year and that would be a repeat the Islanders would like to avoid.
The #1 Contender
Totino-Grace played the #2 strength of schedule in AAA this season. The computer sees them as a reasonable threat to DeLaSalle, giving the Eagles about an 11% chance to reach the section finals.
The Others
Hill-Murray has the benefit of being the 2-seed and on the opposite side of the bracket from DeLaSalle, but the computer would not favor them over the 4-seed Totino-Grace. They have a much higher chance of reaching the finals, but a lower chance of coming out victorious.
The Upset
#6 Fridley over #3 Mahtomedi. The computer predicts a 25% chance of an upset.
Section 5AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Becker | 100 | 78.77 | 70.51 | 1.4 | ||
4 | Willmar | 88.23 | 20.28 | 15.16 | 6.6 | ||
2 | Big Lake | 97.29 | 56.23 | 8.82 | 11 | ||
3 | Monticello | 91.61 | 42.32 | 5.08 | 20 | ||
5 | Zimmerman | 11.77 | 0.95 | 0.39 | 256 | ||
6 | Rocori | 8.39 | 1.26 | 0.04 | 2582 | ||
7 | St. Francis | 2.71 | 0.19 | <0.01 | 59164 |
The Favorite
Becker’s closest contest against a section team was a nine point win over Willmar. Every other section game has had a margin of at least 17 points. They sniffed the state championship last year, finishing runner up, and it seems to have driven them to a successful regular season. Now they will need to put together a playoff run.
The #1 Contender
The 4-seed Willmar is the top threat to Becker according to the computer. However, with just a 2-3 record against section opponents, they will need to perform better to live up to the rating.
The Others
Big Lake and Monticello have both beaten Willmar, and one of them will likely be playing in the section final. Anything can happen once you get to the game.
The Upset
#5 Zimmerman over #4 Willmar. The computer predicts a 12% chance of an upset.
Section 6AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Holy Angels | 97.78 | 84.06 | 67.74 | 1.5 | ||
2 | Orono | 97.58 | 74.41 | 22.22 | 4.5 | ||
4 | Benilde-St. Margarets | 99.98 | 15.54 | 6.76 | 15 | ||
3 | Richfield | 69.12 | 18.68 | 2.54 | 39 | ||
6 | Delano | 30.88 | 6.66 | 0.66 | 150 | ||
8 | Mound-Westonka | 2.22 | 0.4 | 0.06 | 1549 | ||
7 | Bloomington Kennedy | 2.42 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 18359 | ||
5 | Minneapolis Roosevelt | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 74693290123 |
The Favorite
Holy Angels is a heavy favorite, as they should be. The Stars have three wins against the 2- and 3-seeds with no losses.
The #1 Contender
Orono is the 2-seed and gave the Stars a run for their money in the first battle, falling by just seven points. The computer sees about a 65% chance of the top two seeds meeting in the finals.
The Others
Benilde-St. Margaret’s and Richfield would need a lot of things to go their way in order to pull off a couple upsets in a row.
The Upset
#6 Delano over #3 Richfield. The computer predicts a 31% chance of an upset.
Section 7AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hermantown | 99.999 | 88.46 | 79.26 | 1.3 | ||
3 | Hibbing | 93.16 | 63.43 | 10.44 | 9.6 | ||
4 | Grand Rapids | 92.84 | 11.41 | 6.37 | 16 | ||
2 | Princeton | 74.68 | 28.49 | 3.46 | 29 | ||
7 | Cloquet | 25.32 | 6.1 | 0.38 | 261 | ||
6 | Chisago Lakes | 6.84 | 1.98 | 0.06 | 1540 | ||
5 | North Branch | 7.16 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 4330 | ||
8 | Duluth Denfeld | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 31726979625 |
The Favorite
Hermantown has a lofty 10-0 record against section opponents which is part of the reason why they have a 79% chance to win the section. However, two of them came by a combined total of three points, both against Hibbing.
The #1 Contender
Hibbing is looking to repeat, but will need to do some from the 3-seed. Their last of two non-Hermantown section losses came on December 7.
The Others
Grand Rapids and Princeton both have a reasonable chance in this section where there could be some chaos beginning in the semifinals.
The Upset
#7 Cloquet over #2 Princeton. The computer predicts a 25% chance of an upset.
Section 8AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alexandria | 99.91 | 96.12 | 69.44 | 1.4 | ||
2 | Bemidji | 99.53 | 82.25 | 28.09 | 3.56 | ||
3 | Sartell-St. Stephen | 79.68 | 15.68 | 1.81 | 55 | ||
5 | St. Cloud Tech | 46.38 | 2.32 | 0.37 | 268 | ||
4 | Detroit Lakes | 53.62 | 1.55 | 0.17 | 592 | ||
6 | Sauk Rapids-Rice | 20.32 | 2.04 | 0.12 | 834 | ||
8 | Little Falls | 0.09 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 328514 | ||
7 | St. Cloud Apollo | 0.47211951342645 | 0.032282067381465 | <0.01 | 446322 |
The Favorite
Alexandria is the strong favorite in 8AAA. With a 12-0 record in section games and the closest game among them a 12 point win, the Cardinals should feel very confident going in.
The #1 Contender
Bemidji is the top contender, although they are certainly capable of slipping up as evidence by a loss to Detroit Lakes.
The Others
Sartell-St. Stephen has an outside chance but they allowed 90 points in a loss to their first round opponent Sauk Rapids-Rice in their last meeting.
The Upset
#5 St. Cloud Tech over #4 Detroit Lakes. The computer predicts a 46% chance of an upset.