Section Previews By the Numbers: AAAA
AAAA section play gets underway today. The only section starting tomorrow is 8AAAA.Who in the biggest class is most likely to be in the state tournament? Find out below! Section 1AAAA SeedTeamSemisFinalsChamp1 in ??? 1Farmington99.9597.2479.531.3 3New Prague99.5386.9219.365.2 2Rochester Mayo94.7812.960.68147 5Lakeville…
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Continue ReadingAAAA section play gets underway today. The only section starting tomorrow is 8AAAA.Who in the biggest class is most likely to be in the state tournament? Find out below!
Section 1AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Farmington | 99.95 | 97.24 | 79.53 | 1.3 |
3 | New Prague | 99.53 | 86.92 | 19.36 | 5.2 |
2 | Rochester Mayo | 94.78 | 12.96 | 0.68 | 147 |
5 | Lakeville South | 53.95 | 1.98 | 0.35 | 284 |
4 | Rochester John Marshall | 46.05 | 0.77 | 0.08 | 1287 |
7 | Northfield | 5.22 | 0.07 | <0.01 | 257431 |
6 | Owatonna | 0.47 | 0.04 | <0.01 | 587526 |
8 | Rochester Century | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3265287 |
The Favorite
Farmington clocks in as the favorite and has been a top 10 team all season, spending a large portion of the beginning of the year at #2 in the ratings. Now that Lakeville North has moved to section 3AAAA, a major hurdle has been removed for the Tigers.
The #1 Contender
New Prague has come on strong to finish the season and may be undervalued by many since they play in the Wright County Conference East, of which they are the only AAAA team. However, they are 13-1 since the calendar turned to 2020 with the lone loss being to STMA by three.
The Others
Rochester Mayo clocks in as the 2-seed thanks to their 21-4 record, but the computer sees them as having to complete two upsets to become champions..
The Upset
#5 Lakeville South over #4 Rochester John Marshall. The computer predicts a 54% chance of an upset.
Section 2AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chaska | 99.66 | 87.15 | 47.13 | 2.1 |
2 | Eden Prairie | 94.88 | 61.96 | 34.27 | 2.9 |
3 | Minnetonka | 93.08 | 36.67 | 15.37 | 6.5 |
5 | Edina | 51.57 | 8.04 | 2.21 | 45 |
4 | Shakopee | 48.43 | 4.8 | 0.89 | 112 |
6 | Prior Lake | 6.92 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 1505 |
7 | Chanhassen | 5.12 | 0.66 | 0.06 | 1667 |
8 | Bloomington Jefferson | 0.34 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 855413 |
The Favorite
Chaska was recently passed by Eden Prairie in the ratings, but still maintains the role of favorite due to the fact that they could well play all their section games at home. A unique setup allows the top remaining seed to play at home in the semifinals and finals.
The #1 Contender
Eden Prairie has quite a few losses, but they certainly challenged themselves. With the #2 strength of schedule in the state, the Eagles have played top competition both in and out of conference and should be prepared for sections.
The Others
Minnetonka is a team that could challenge the top two considering they did beat Eden Prairie in one of the two meetings this year, but they may still be a year or two away. Edina and Shakopee are also given small chances to advance, but it would most likely require winning two road games for Shakopee and three road games for Edina.
The Upset
#5 Edina over #4 Shakopee. The computer predicts a 52% chance of an upset.
Section 3AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rosemount | 99.69 | 85.72 | 55.44 | 1.8 |
2 | Lakeville North | 98.24 | 66.2 | 30.2 | 3.3 |
3 | Burnsville | 82.7 | 30.81 | 9.92 | 10 |
4 | Apple Valley | 79.49 | 12.86 | 3.8 | 26 |
6 | Eagan | 17.3 | 2.88 | 0.38 | 266 |
5 | Eastview | 20.5 | 1.4 | 0.22 | 450 |
7 | Hastings | 1.76 | 0.12 | <0.01 | 37179 |
8 | Park of Cottage Grove | 0.31 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 251270 |
The Favorite
Rosemount was one basket away last year and this year they hope to finish the job. With better than a coin flip’s chance they are in a great position to do so.
The #1 Contender
Lakeville North is good at section tournaments. Last year they knocked off the top seed Farmington as the perceived underdog to with their fourth straight 1AAAA championship. With the move to 3AAAA comes a different challenge, but the section is made up of mostly South Suburban Conference opponents.
The Others
Burnsville and Apple Valley have both beaten Lakeville North this season, although earlier in the campaign. On the other side of that, they are a combined 0-4 against Rosemount with an average point differential of -20 points per game.
The Upset
#5 Eastview over #4 Apple Valley. The computer predicts a 21% chance of an upset.
Section 4AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Stillwater | 99.99999999995 | 94.47 | 88.95 | 1.1 |
3 | White Bear Lake | 99.04 | 52.83 | 4.31 | 23 |
2 | East Ridge | 97.83 | 47.07 | 4.13 | 24 |
4 | Woodbury | 68.51 | 4.12 | 2.01 | 50 |
5 | Cretin-Derham Hall | 31.49 | 1.42 | 0.59 | 169 |
7 | Tartan | 2.17 | 0.07 | <0.01 | 464446 |
6 | St. Paul Central | 0.96 | 0.03 | <0.01 | 1138782 |
8 | North St. Paul | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Stillwater comes in as nearly a 90% favorite. Their section record is 7-1 with the lone loss coming at White Bear Lake in mid December. How did they avenge that loss? With a 73-23 win nearly 6 weeks later.
The #1 Contender
White Bear Lake certainly qualifies. As strange as high school girls basketball is, even though they suffered a 50 point loss to Stillwater, it would not be the strangest thing all season if the Bears beat them again.
The Others
East Ridge has had a nice season and falls just below White Bear Lake as a contender. Woodbury also comes in with a chance, albeit very small, to win the section.
The Upset
#5 Cretin-Derham Hall over #4 Woodbury. The computer predicts a 32% chance of an upset.
Section 5AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Park Center | 99.66 | 83.98 | 66.74 | 1.5 |
2 | Centennial | 92.28 | 78.6 | 24.25 | 4.1 |
4 | Spring Lake Park | 66.44 | 11.28 | 5.2 | 19 |
5 | Champlin Park | 33.56 | 4.72 | 1.98 | 50 |
3 | Roseville | 84.91 | 16.78 | 1.54 | 65 |
7 | Osseo | 7.72 | 3.45 | 0.24 | 420 |
6 | Mounds View | 15.09 | 1.17 | 0.04 | 2683 |
8 | Irondale | 0.34 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 275223 |
The Favorite
Park Center started the season scorching hot with wins over STMA, Stillwater, Eden Prairie, and Wayzata. They have “cooled” since, but are still as dangerous as anyone.
The #1 Contender
Centennial won the lone regular season contest with Park Center in a thriller at home. This time they will need to beat them at a neutral site, but the Cougar program has been there before finishing third at state just last season.
The Others
Spring Lake Park has shown promise this season, and just concluded the regular season with an overtime victory over Park Center. Champlin Park has some impressive wins this season including a recent win over Centennial, but has combined it with a few head scratchers. Roseville is always a tough out but is just 0-1 against the other top five seeds in the section.
The Upset
#5 Champlin Park over #4 Spring Lake Park. The computer predicts a 34% chance of an upset.
Section 6AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hopkins | 99.9999999991 | 99.52 | 84.54 | 1.2 |
2 | Wayzata | 99.95 | 91.05 | 15.24 | 6.6 |
3 | St. Louis Park | 99.86 | 8.95 | 0.19 | 520 |
5 | Robbinsdale Cooper | 82.51 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 3865 |
4 | Minneapolis South | 17.49 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3579681 |
7 | Robbinsdale Armstrong | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 237625816 |
6 | Minneapolis Southwest | 0.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 116588706832 |
8 | Minneapolis Washburn | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 710437152134977920 |
The Favorite
Hopkins will play a name your score game in the first round and should have no troubles in the semifinals. With above a 99.5% chance to make the finals, the chance of winning it becomes greater.
The #1 Contender
Wayzata gave Hopkins a great game in their first outing, but the second battle was much more one sided. Should they make it to the finals (with over a 90% chance, it is very likely), they will be hoping for a game more like the first where they can give themselves a chance down the stretch to pull off the upset.
The Others
St. Louis Park started the season slow, 2-10 to be exact, but there is a reason why they never fell out of the top 20 in the ratings. Their last time out proved how dangerous they can be as the lost at Chaska by one on a last second shot.
The Upset
#5 Robbinsdale Cooper over #4 Minneapolis South. The computer predicts a 83% chance of an upset.
Section 7AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Blaine | 92.48 | 65.01 | 37.84 | 2.6 |
1 | Andover | 100 | 65.15 | 35.47 | 2.8 |
3 | Forest Lake | 71.92 | 25.67 | 10.09 | 9.9 |
4 | Cambridge-Isanti | 66.39 | 23.89 | 9.93 | 10 |
5 | Anoka | 33.61 | 10.96 | 4.21 | 24 |
6 | Duluth East | 28.08 | 7.45 | 2.16 | 46 |
7 | Coon Rapids | 7.52 | 1.88 | 0.29 | 343 |
The Favorite
Blaine has been a pleasant surprise this season and parlayed it into the 2-seed in 7AAAA. Although they still remain the favorite, they are currently treading water on a four game losing streak. Not the way you’d like to head into section play.
The #1 Contender
Andover is right behind Blaine in their probability to go to state. A solid season for the Huskies culminated with an 8-0 record against section opponents, including 2-0 against the favorite Blaine.
The Others
Also on a four game losing streak, Forest Lake is limping into the playoffs. However, just because these are not last year’s Rangers does not mean they won’t make any noise. Also, an ever-improving Cambridge-Isanti club also boasts around a 1 in 10 chance while Anoka and even Duluth East could throw a wrench in the plans of the top teams.
The Upset
#5 Anoka over #4 Cambridge-Isanti. The computer predicts a 34% chance of an upset.
Section 8AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | STMA | 100 | 94.67 | 85.95 | 1.2 |
2 | Maple Grove | 97.28 | 58 | 7.74 | 13 |
3 | Elk River | 89.58 | 40.21 | 4.41 | 23 |
4 | Moorhead | 61 | 3.33 | 1.14 | 87 |
5 | Rogers | 39 | 2.01 | 0.71 | 142 |
6 | Buffalo | 10.42 | 1.54 | 0.05 | 2019 |
7 | Brainerd | 2.72 | 0.24 | <0.01 | 37625 |
The Favorite
St. Michael-Albertville transitioned to the Lake Conference just fine. Although they did not finish the conference season undefeated for the first time in 7 years, they did finish 17-8 against the most difficult schedule in the entire state.
The #1 Contender
Maple Grove will have to get by Elk River before they get the chance to avenge a 20 point loss to the Knights earlier this season.
The Others
Elk River has shown the ability to compete with and beat good teams, something they will get the chance to do in this section if they want to represent at state. Moorhead also has a small chance but will need to hope STMA is rusty after their bye considering the first outing was an 81-57 loss.
The Upset
#5 Rogers over #4 Moorhead. The computer predicts a 39% chance of an upset.