Rankings preview: It’s time for a Minnesota update
Do rankings matter? It’s a question I am asked regularly. There are many who will tell you they don’t – usually individuals affiliated with a player who is unranked or ranked lower than they would like – but the simple fact is they do matter. Why? Because they are a great tool for college coaches, a measuring stick for players and interesting fodder for discussion. Rankings are not the be-all, end-all of course. A player’s ranking isn’t going to prevent her from playing college basketball. A higher ranking isn’t going to take a Division 3 talent and propel them into the rarified air of Division 1. But it can help players get noticed and that’s the whole point.
Our readers certainly love the rankings. One of the benefits of publishing content on a digital platform is you know exactly what people are reading. Unlike my old newspapering days, when reader interests were only vaguely understood and rarely paid attention to, we know what people read on a daily basis. What they are reading on the Prep Girls Hoops website are the rankings. The numbers don’t lie as the prospect rankings consistently draw more readers than any other content on the website. Way more.
How to use the prospect rankings
While everyone reads the rankings the intended audience are the college coaches. Our lists have proved to be a helpful tool for recruiters, particularly those who have never scouted in Minnesota before. Coaches may get hired into a program that recruits here and they need to get up to speed on the talent pool. Other programs have never been to the state before and perusing the Prep Girls Hoops rankings is a great place to get started. This information alone isn’t going to convince a coach to sign a player but it will point them in the right direction to begin with. Rather than arriving at a Minnesota AAU event blind, coaches can know who might fit the description of what they are looking for before their plane even touches down at MSP. This can make their tournament experience much more productive.
More and more college programs are discovering that Minnesota has a lot to offer. Most notable among them, of course, is Lehigh University in Pennsylvania. The Division 1 school from the Patriot League has bagged a harvest of top recruits here, which has led other schools to take a look, too. The University of Utah, a high major program from the PAC 12, has been working diligently in Minnesota for the past couple of years and recently landed two of the best 2021 prospects in the state – Jenna Johnson Jenna Johnson 6'2" | PF Wayzata | 2021 State #52 Nation MN of Wayzata and Gianna Kneepkens Gianna Kneepkens 5'11" | CG Duluth Marshall | 2021 State #86 Nation MN of Duluth Marshall. Don’t be surprised if more kids want to be Utes in the near future.
From a fan perspective, the rankings are simply a lot of fun! Players and parents, as well as AAU coaches and club directors, provide us with plenty of feedback. Most of it is constructive – some not so much – but we appreciate the input. Yes, some folks complain rather loudly and that’s OK, but I would not recommend, a) badmouthing us in the gym, b) tweeting about being disrespected or ‘slept on’, or c) demanding that your player be removed from the list. None of those approaches turns out very well in the end.
How the rankings process works
I am often asked how the rankings process works. It’s simple really. We watch a ton of basketball, talk to as many people as we can about players and involve a significant number of people in the process. Over time we have developed a network of educated, independent basketball observers around the state who contribute their knowledge to the process. Our evaluators include AAU and high school coaches, and college coaches at all levels. Even officials weigh in on occasion. All evaluators are granted anonymity so they can give honest feedback on players. The only person who knows who is involved in any particular rankings update is me, and I’m not telling!
Clearly the PGH rankings are not the opinions of one person, but I do have a lot of say in the process. I choose who to involve and how to use their information. When it comes down to a decision between player A and player B somebody has to make the final choice and that person is usually me. But the truth is, there is a ton of back and forth and my opinion of a player is only that – my opinion. I did watch 170 high school teams play this winter, and was in the gym an average of about 10 hours a day at pretty much every AAU event in 2019. I attend practices, showcases and individual workouts. I have notes on my computer on more than 750 current players in Minnesota. This is not a process we take lightly.
Over time a players ranking goes up or down. Some kids grow; others do not. Some players make tremendous strides in their skill development; others seem to stagnate over time. There are injuries and transfers and new opportunities given to players that enable them to excel as never before. All of these things are factors.
We also screw up, sometimes missing on a player completely the first time a class is ranked. Despite our best efforts it is inevitable. In the first ranking of the class of 2022, for example, we missed out altogether on Ally Schultz Ally Schultz 6'0" | CG Lakeville South | 2022 State MN of Lakeville South. Shame on us. We quickly amended that at the next update when she entered the list at #31. Her current ranking is #21. We also missed on Madison Mathiowetz Madison Mathiowetz 5'10" | CG Sleepy Eye St. Mary's | 2022 State MN of Sleepy Eye-St. Mary’s that fall, but we can forgive ourselves for that one because she plays at a tiny school that is well off the beaten path and she wasn’t a fixture on the AAU circuit. Today Maddie is a strong D1 prospect.
A couple of years ago I made an egregious clerical error that placed Sarah Kuma Sarah Kuma 5'7" | CG Lakeville North | 2020 State MN of Lakeville North in the 80s when she belonged in the 40s. This was quickly pointed out to me by several people and she was moved up as soon as possible. What happened? When I cut and pasted Sarah’s information from one part of my spreadsheet to another I accidently put her in the wrong spot. No excuses, but it was an honest mistake. Sarah’s final ranking in the class of 2020 was #37 and she is headed to Concordia-St. Paul to play D2 basketball.
One final (and really important) point
Let me close with one really important point, an aspect of the rankings that always gets people confused. The Prep Girls Hoops prospect rankings are about college potential, not current performance. Let me repeat that for the folks in the back: THE PGH RANKINGS ARE ABOUT COLLEGE POTENTIAL, NOT CURRENT PERFORMANCE.
The goal is to identify a player’s potential to succeed at the next level. In other words, we want to determine who will be a great college basketball player. High school ball matters, of course, but success in high school doesn’t necessarily translate to success at the next level. That’s why you’ll find small guards who score 20 points per game in Class A high school ball ranked in the 80s while athletic 6-footers who have yet to set foot on the court in a varsity game are sometimes ranked in the top 15. That may not make sense to the little guard’s friends and family but it makes perfect sense to a college basketball coach.
There are plenty of 5’9 forwards who find success in class A or AA high school basketball but you won’t find many of them moving on to scholarship-level college ball. What works in Staples-Motley on a Tuesday evening in December probably won’t cut it on Saturday afternoon in Brookings when South Dakota State is hosting Creighton.
The rankings are generally updated three times a year: winter, spring and fall. Players are ranked for the first time in the fall of their 9th grade year. These days we know many of the incoming freshmen because they are already established varsity players. Those in the class who have yet to step out on the big stage are evaluated during the summer of 8th grade and then we sort it out in the fall. Most years by this time we have a pretty good handle on the class, but with the delayed start to AAU in 2020 we are barely into the process.
We already published our 2024 Watch List this week. The new rankings of the class of 2021 will be published on Friday with updates on the 2022s and 2023s to follow. If you are not a subscriber now would be the time to sign up!