Who returns the most scoring? 5A Graduation Adjusted Rankings
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Our series on Colorado’s Graduation-Adjusted Rankings (GAR) continues with the juggernauts of 5A. This is a simple method to rank teams based on how much scoring production is graduating from each team. I took the playoff seeds from 2021 teams…
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Continue ReadingOur series on Colorado’s Graduation-Adjusted Rankings (GAR) continues with the juggernauts of 5A. This is a simple method to rank teams based on how much scoring production is graduating from each team.
I took the playoff seeds from 2021 teams and added 1/5 of the scoring percentage each team is losing to graduation. The lower the score, the better. This is just one piece of the pie on a team’s true ranking, but surely provides some insight on who’ll be moving up next year!
Here’s the list for 5A:
Tournament Seed | Team Name | PPG |
% Senior Scoring
|
Graduation-Adjusted Ranking |
1 | Valor Christian | 72.9 | 67.4% | 5 |
2 | Regis Jesuit | 57.1 | 46.4% | 2 |
3 | Grandview | 75.7 | 43.6% | 3 |
4 | Highlands Ranch | 61.2 | 59.0% | 7 |
5 | Ralston Valley | 61.5 | 71.9% | 12 |
6 | Chaparral | 53.6 | 25.6% | 1 |
7 | Doherty | 56.6 | 35.3% | 4 |
8 | Rangeview | 68.7 | 34.2% | 6 |
9 | Fossil Ridge | 53.2 | 49.6% | 11 |
10 | Arapahoe | 60.6 | 40.4% | 9 |
11 | Monarch | 56.2 | 42.9% | 13 |
12 | Chatfield | 55.3 | 41.0% | 14 |
13 | Fountain Fort Carson | 54.1 | 61.0% | 19 |
14 | Columbine | 49.5 | 21.0% | 10 |
15 | Fruita Monument | 36.8 | 8.4% | 8 |
16 | Denver South | 67.5 | 30.8% | 16 |
17 | Castle View | 42.1 | 49.6% | 21 |
18 | Ponderosa | 42.5 | 31.5% | 18 |
19 | Air Academy | 47.5 | 36.6% | 20 |
20 | Horizon | 53.4 | 13.9% | 17 |
21 | ThunderRidge | 43.2 | 5.1% | 15 |
22 | Mountain Vista | 46.3 | 90.9% | 31 |
23 | Arvada West | 45 | 34.0% | 22 |
24 | Broomfield | 48 | 71.3% | 28 |
25 | Rocky Mountain | 42.4 | 55.4% | 26 |
26 | Poudre | 45.3 | 66.7% | 29 |
27 | Lakewood | 42.5 | 35.8% | 25 |
28 | Pueblo West | 52.9 | 25.5% | 24 |
29 | Cherry Creek | 50.4 | 56.7% | 32 |
30 | Eaglecrest | 45.9 | 35.1% | 27 |
31 | Pine Creek | 48.1 | 45.3% | 30 |
32 | Westminster | 48.8 | 3.7% | 23 |
Does anyone actually expect Valor Christian to fall out of the top 4? Of course not. The index doesn’t account for the return from injury of the absolutely dominant Oregon State commit, Reagan Beers. But these rankings highlight the youth and talent coming back of teams like Chaparral and Doherty. And they challenge the depth and player development of teams like Ralston Valley and Broomfield to see how quickly they can retool. Valor Christian may lose over two-thirds of their scoring but with their wide-reaching ability to reel in talent, no need to retool for the Eagles, just reload. Of their many prospects, look for Sydney Baller Sydney Baller 5'10" | SG Valor Christian | 2023 State CO to stand out. The 2023, 5’8″, well-kept secret validates her surname with a mix of smooth moves and reliable shooting.
Losing just a quarter of their scoring, Chaparral fares well on the index. Most of that loss is from Adams State recruit, Teja Tsangarakis Teja Tsangarakis 5'6" | PG Chaparral | 2021 State CO . It’s no small chore replacing her since, at 4.3 assists per game, she had a hand in about 40% of their scoring. But Coach Tony Speights is always building and he see a big year ahead for Keegan Armetta Keegan Armetta 5'7" | PG Chaparral | 2023 State CO (2023, 5’7″) and Reagan Lentell (2024, 5’11”) to compliment the Wolverines’ phenom twins, Avery Bang Avery Bang 6'1" | PF Chaparral | 2022 State CO and Payton Bang Payton Bang 6'1" | PF Chaparral | 2022 State CO , plus the return of Brie Murphy and Riley Smith.
It certainly hasn’t taken ThunderRidge and Coach Sam Gillmore long to replace all the scoring they lost after their 2020, 13-seed draw. They dropped for just one year to the 21-seed and their GAR has them jumping right back up into the top 15 next year. The Grizzlies have a sleuth of prospects and you’ll want to know who Keira Kayser-Cochran and Alexis Baker Alexis Baker 5'7" | CG ThunderRidge | 2024 State CO (sister to leading scorer and ultra-physical 2022 prospect, Adrianna Baker) are. The 2024, 6’0″, tough, athletic, Kayser-Cochran is smart beyond her years and the 2024, 5’8″, Baker has the court vision to get Keira the ball in position to score. Plus, the Grizzles return 6’2″ Regan Keyter for one more year who’s always a double-double threat.
Ralston Valley has turnover coming it’s way with the loss of an epic senior class led by the trio of Sydney Bevington Sydney Bevington 6'0" | PG Ralston Valley | 2021 State CO , Brooklyn Seymour Brooklyn Seymour 5'11" | PF Ralston Valley | 2021 State CO , and McKenna Nichols. Losing over 70% of their scoring, the Mustangs drop to 12. But Coach Jeff Gomer has built and rebuilt again and again. He’ll look for prospects Sophia Sabus Sophia Sabus 5'11" | CG Ralston Valley | 2024 State CO and Hannah Somorin Hannah Somorin 5'6" | PG Ralston Valley | 2024 CO to carry a bigger load alongside sharpshooter Saya Sabus Saya Sabus 5'9" | CG Ralston Valley | 2022 State CO .
Broomfield is another program led by a legend in Coach Mike Croell and losing box-score triplets in Courtney Wristen Courtney Wristen 6'2" | PF Broomfield | 2021 State CO , Emma Rich Emma Rich 5'5" | PG Broomfield | 2021 State CO , and Hayley Ventura Hayley Ventura 5'6" | SG Broomfield | 2021 State CO . Their 71.3% void drops them from 24 to 28. Eight different freshmen and sophomores did see some time this year, though, led by 2023 prospect Sophie Christopher Sophie Christopher 5'6" | CG Broomfield | 2023 State CO .
Other risers with almost everyone back are Fruita Monument and Westminster. And look for Horizon to keep moving up the ranks.
Check out last week’s 3A Graduation-Adjusted Ranking. 1A, 2A, and 4A GAR lists to come. Stay tuned!